New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat Total Pick


The New Orleans Pelicans will wrap-up a four game road trip with a stop at AmericanAirlines Arena this Tuesday night to face the Miami Heat. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBA TV.

Point Spread: Miami -10
Total Line: 202.5
New Orleans vs. Miami Game Overview
The Pelicans have gone 1-2 straight-up in the first three games of this trip including a 99-82 loss to Indiana this past Saturday as 11.5-point road underdogs. They are now 15-17 SU on the year with a 6-12 SU record on the road. New Orleans has failed to cover in its last three games to fall to 13-17-2 against the spread with a 6-11-1 mark away from home. The total stayed UNDER the 191.5-point closing line against the Pacers, but it has gone OVER in 10 of 18 road games this year.
One word to describe New Orleans could be balance, but not necessarily in a good way. It is averaging 102.3 points a game on offense while allowing 102.8 points a game on the other end of the court. It continues to do a pretty good job under the boards with 43.5 rebounds a game and the team as a whole is shooting 45.6 percent from the field. Ryan Anderson (19.8 points) and Anthony Davis (19 points) are the Pelicans two biggest scoring threats and they have a total of six players scoring in double figures, which is good balance. A big setback for this contest will be the loss of Anderson, who is out indefinitely with a back injury.

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Miami continues to roll through the East with an 8-2 SU run in its last 10 games. It trails Indiana by a game and half for the top spot in the conference standings with an overall record of 26-8. The Heat have been tough to bet on over this same stretch of games with a 3-7 mark ATS. They are now 16-18 ATS for the year and a costly 6-12 ATS at home. The total has gone OVER in 12 of those 18 home games and it has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games overall.
The Heat have the fifth-highest scoring total in the NBA with 104.8 points a game to go along with a defensive effort that is holding opponents to 98.2 points a game. As good as this team is, it still has had its share of issues under the boards with an average of just 36.4 rebounds a game, which is the lowest total in the league. LeBron James continues to lead the way with a team-high 25.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.6 assists. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are chipping in another 35.4 points, 11.3 rebounds and 5.6 assists combined. One injury concern for Miami is Mario Chalmers. He remains questionable for Tuesday night with an Achilles injury.

Betting Trends
The Pelicans are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team from the Southeast Division. The total has gone OVER in 16 of their last 21 games against the Eastern Conference.
The Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a SU losing record on the road. The total has gone OVER in 19 of their last 26 games against a team from the Southwest Division.
Head-to-head in this matchup, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in 12 of the last 18 games played in Miami.

Total Line Pick
Both teams come into this contest with strong betting trends on the OVER with the exception of when they play one another in Miami. Add in the fact that the Pelicans' top scorer is out of the lineup and this game sets up perfectly for a play on the UNDER against a very favorable total line.