Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans Pick

March 6, 8:00 PM EST

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
New Orleans -1.5

The Miami Heat (40-22) and New Orleans Pelicans (26-36) will square off in the Big Easy for a Western Conference versus Eastern Conference clash on Friday, March 6th, 2020, with a scheduled tip-off time of 8:00 PM ET. The contest will be one of national interest and will be televised on both ESPN and FSN. The two sides last met in November, where the Pelicans were defeated by the Heat 109-94 to enable Miami to cover easily as an eight-point home favorite. The Heat have won the last three meetings and covered in the previous four collisions between both sides.

Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans Key Injury Concerns

Pelicans Shooting Guard J.J Redick will be unavailable for this game due to a sore left hamstring.

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Miami Heat at New Orleans Pelicans Overview

Miami Heat

The Heat step into this contest in good form as they have won their last four matches. Miami was last in action on Wednesday at home against cross-state divisional rival Orlando. Closing as a 6.5-point favorite, the Heat were unable to get their takers to the cashier window when they edged out the Magic 116-113.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans come in on a three-game losing streak, going 1-4 ATS in their previous five outings. Most recently, New Orleans was in action in Dallas against the Mavericks, two days ago. Closing as a 6.5-point underdog, the Pelicans were able to come in under the number when they fell 127-123 to the Mavs in overtime.

Reasons to Avoid Miami

The stock on Miami as a whole is elevated given their present win streak, concerning owning victories over Milwaukee and Dallas in this span. As a result, the Heat are in a position to be overvalued, especially against a New Orleans basketball team that has dropped its last three fixtures. Combining with the recent series history and the Heat's scourge of profitability, the propensity for the Heat to be overvalued is that much greater here. Be that as it may, Miami plays losing basketball on the road this season with a 13-18 SU record away from home, operating an average margin of -3.0. Given the fact we are being asked to lay half that margin here, New Orleans bodes value.

Reasons to Back New Orleans

In addition to the aforementioned variables, rendering New Orleans undervalued, the Pelicans have gone 0-4 ATS in the last four matches they were the chalk and when they were also the home team. In this scenario, they are both, and we are likely getting them at a reduced price as a result. It is worth annotating that the Pelicans were double-digit home favorites in two of the last three occasions they failed to cover as the chalk. That in itself would suggest that the market respects this squad despite their losing record on the season. The Pelicans are evidently far better than the numbers show. I like the prospect of playing a team with this kind of potency at an equitable number.

Heat at Pelicans Prediction

To some, it will genuinely be inexplicable how a playoff-bound team like Miami, who has also been a cash cow in this series as of late, is a small dog here against the lottery-bound Pelicans. However, to me, this line wreaks of a trap bet if one were to get behind the Heat. New Orleans has been a much more formidable squad ever since Zion Williamson made his debut for the ‘Cans and I trust his folklore will continue to grow with a win here against the Heat. I’ll lay the measly bucket with confidence here.

Free Pick: 
Take New Orleans -1.5