Lakers vs. Heat Game 6 Odds & Spread Pick

October 11, 7:30 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Lakers -5

The Miami Heat survived an elimination game Friday night and shoot to do it again when they take on the Lakers for Game 6 of this NBA Finals series Sunday night. Can Miami extend these Finals to a seventh game? Can LA avoid a pressure-packed Game 7? And how are we playing Sunday's game with our free NBA Finals pick?

Lakers -5/214.5 vs. Heat, 7:30 pm ET, ABC

Los Angeles leads this NBA Finals series three games to two, following Miami's 111-108 Game 5 victory Friday night. The Heat led by 11 points in the second quarter, by four at the half, and by 11 with 10 minutes to go. The Lakers then embarked up a 17-3 run to take a 99-96 lead with five minutes to play. But Miami battled back to lead by a point late, then survived a wide-open Danny Green three-point attempt with seven seconds left, badly missed, for the outright victory as seven-point underdogs. It was the ninth time in these playoffs the Heat won a game outright as a dog on the betting line. Both teams shot 46 percent from the field Friday night. But LA out-rebounded Miami 50-43 and outscored the Heat 42-32 in the paint and 25-4 on the fast break. The Lakers just needed one more shot to go down to win the championship but couldn't get it. For Los Angeles, LeBron James and Anthony Davis combined to shoot 24/36 from the floor Friday, while the rest of the Lakers shot 14/46. With Friday's win, Miami is now 14-6 SU, 15-5 ATS this playoff season. With Friday's loss, Los Angeles is now 15-5 SU, 11-8-1 ATS this postseason. Also, the Lakers are now 5-2 SU against the Heat this season, but Miami is 4-3 ATS. Also, Friday's game played over a total of 216. So the unders are now 3-2 in this series, as the games have averaged 218 total points against an average over/under of 218. Obviously, those guys who post those totals know what they're doing. The Game 6 NBA betting odds opened LA at -5.5, with a total of right around 216. Early betting action then dipped that spread to -5 and the total to 214.5. The NBA futures betting market now lists the Lakers at -800 to win this series, with the Heat getting +500 to pull off the comeback. On the injury front, Davis is dealing with a sore heel, but he's listed as probable for Sunday night. Meanwhile, Miami G Goran Dragic, who's missed the last four games with a bad foot, is still listed as doubtful.

Lakers vs. Heat Prediction - Game 5 ATS Pick

The Heat really extended themselves Friday and still almost lost. They also benefited from a couple of calls late in the game. But things like that tend to balance out over the course of two or three games. Also, Miami's win Friday helps temper the line on this Game 6 by a bucket or so. We like Los Angeles minus the points for our free NBA pick for Sunday.
Free Pick: 
Take the Lakers -5.5