Game 3: Toronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets Over/Under Pick


The Toronto Raptors will look to regain the home court advantage in their opening round best-of-seven series against the Brooklyn Nets when these two Atlantic Division foes battle it out this Friday night at the Barclays Center. Tip-off for Game 3 is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2

Point Spread: Brooklyn -5
Total Line: 191
Toronto vs. Brooklyn Game Overview
Toronto earned the division title and No. 3 seed in the East for this year's NBA Playoffs with an overall straight-up record of 48-34, but the Oddsmakers opened the Raptors as underdogs for this series. They tried to prove them right with a 94-87 loss in the series opener as 3.5-point home favorites. However, this past Tuesday Toronto was able to even the score with a 100-95 victory in Game 2 in a game that ended as a PUSH. The total stayed UNDER the 192.5-point line in Game 1 and it went OVER the closing 190.5-point line in Game 2.
You kind of get the feeling that this series is going to go the distance between two evenly matched teams. The Raptors are by no means one of the more flashy teams in this year's playoffs after averaging 101.3 points per game, but they do know how to play defense. Toronto wrapped-up the regular season ranked seventh in the NBA in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 98 PPG. DerMar DeRozan has led the team in scoring through the first two games with 44 points and Jonas Valanciunas has been a monster under the boards with 32 rebounds.

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The Nets closed-out the regular season with just one SU win in their final five games while posting a costly 1-6 record against the spread in their last seven outings of the season. They finished four games behind Toronto in the Atlantic with an overall SU record of 44-38. Brooklyn returns home where they went 28-13 SU on the year with a 24-17 record ATS.
While most experts have Brooklyn advancing to the next round in this matchup that will ultimately hinge on this team's veteran leadership rising to the occasion. The playoff experience is evident with players such as Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett on the roster, but there has to be some concern after Pierce went just 2-for-11 from the field in Tuesday's loss and with the team's inability to take advantage of 21 Toronto turnovers. The key to getting a crucial win on Friday night will be Brooklyn's ability to play at a high level for all 48 minutes after getting outscored 36-29 in the final quarter of Game 2.

Toronto vs. Brooklyn Betting Trends
The Raptors are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on two days' rest, but they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 10 games.
The Nets are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games and 5-0 ATS at home in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record on the road. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games in the conference quarterfinals.
Head-to-head in this division matchup, the home team has covered in seven of the last 12 meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last four games played in Brooklyn.

Total Line Pick
Recent betting trends do not favor Toronto as the road team in this matchup, but I am not overly confident that Brooklyn will be able to cover the five point spread. The top play for Friday's game is the OVER on the total line. While both of these team's primary strength is still its defense, the early pace of play in this series dictates that the scoring in this game should add up to more than the current 191-point line.