We will once again continue our assault on the Spurs as the ceiling can only get closer and closer with each win this team pulls off. The Spurs may have won their thirteenth consecutive fixture on the road this season and perhaps done so in impressive fashion, but nonetheless the bubble is bound to burst. Chicago comes in to this contest in the perfect position as they will likely be off the radar despite being a quite formidable team. Currently, the Bulls have hit a rough patch but a win here can change their fortune. Chicago nearly defeated Portland in their last home contest and previous to this, they soundly defeated the East’s big dog and defending champion Cleveland. Chicago has been on the road in seven of their last ten contests and more often than not we see in the NBA home court advantage does in fact exist. However, San Antonio seems to have road court advantage which is quite an anomaly. As long as San Antonio enters games undefeated on the road, they will be spotting points most likely. With this being said, we have an opportunity to take back teams strong at home likely with inflated points and that is the angle we are taking in this primetime match-up.

What we have here is a classic case of an overlay. Given the performances of both clubs as of late and the reaction of this market accordingly, the Rockets are all the more prone to spotting more numbers here than they should. The Lakers are in prime position to cover and make a game of this affair if Houston fails to put them away. Houston barely got by Boston last night as a result of this very narrative. The contrasting numbers both teams put up in opponent shooting from the free-throw line and turnovers suggests such an event is all the more likely to occur. Los Angeles is not a team you want to have hang around as they have beaten teams like Chicago on the road and Golden State in dominant fashion in the Los Angeles. Furthermore, Los Angeles knows how to beat this team outright as they have already won against Houston earlier this season.

As we have highlighted previously, the margin of victory for the Spurs is getting ever smaller on the road. Sure, the Spurs may have won their twelfth straight on the road this season and their tenth consecutive victory this season but that bubble is set to burst. The mere condition of San Antonio having to sweat out a hard fought clash with the Bucks last night affords Minnesota to enter this game fresher on three games rest. The Timberwolves have some dynamic playmakers in their ranks who love to utilize speed and hone their athletic abilities. Minnesota will likely force San Antonio to chase their stars around the court in a fast-paced affair and quite frankly the Spurs will probably be gassed and not be able to keep up. The momentum from the Charlotte win will likely carry over to Andrew Wiggins and company and the Timberwolves will enter this contest flying high. Given the fact we can take back Minnesota at home with points, there is a great chance we can be cashing in on a live dog in its own backyard against an overvalued San Antonio team.

Milwaukee hasn’t made a living off of beating teams like Brooklyn and Orlando all season long. This is a team that owns home wins over Memphis and Cleveland. With the name and reputation that precedes the Spurs it is likely that San Antonio is imposing a premium in their price. The fact remains, the Bucks own the top-ranked defense in the NBA in terms of opponent field goal percentage and opponent three-point field goal percentage. This is a rather pessimistic narrative for the Spurs who bank on their league-leading three-point shooting attack. San Antonio will have to lose at some point on the road and this scenario looks like a prime situation where the Spurs can hit a bump. Look for Milwaukee to dictate on their court, playing basketball their way…which means this one will likely be a defensive-oriented affair. Both Milwaukee and the Under offer immense value in this fixture.

Very simply it is hard to beat the same team three times in the same season and even more so when two of these games are back to back. Ask the New York Knicks about that with their encounter with Charlotte two days later. Once again we are itching to take the Nets on the Money Line because the price here is astronomical. Milwaukee is not a good enough team to spotting this amount of points or require this amount of juice, but this is predicated on the events of Thursday. The lack of faith in Brooklyn is likely backed by the corresponding narrative of Milwaukee’s 118-101 victory against Cleveland most recently at home. Combining this event with the obvious and dominant campaign of Milwaukee Bucks victories over the Brooklyn Nets and the number to many seems about right. This seems to be a classic overreaction and while the Money Line offers tremendous value, Nets with the points is our play.

The Nuggets are a team that can be exceptionally dangerous if they are taken lightly by any means. This team has a plethora of talent and while Houston may have James Harden at leading the way, Mudiay and Barton may soon be the next big thing in the NBA. While many may speak of Houston’s ability to score this does not bear much consequence to Denver who enjoys applying a similar approach. Denver will let opponents score as much as they so want as the Nuggets are a team that enjoy bursts of offense that can be outright volcanic. Much of what we are seeing here is an overreaction to what went down in Oakland last night. The upset of Golden State is bound to generate some fanfare and takers are going to disregard the fact that Houston may enter this one gassed after the marathon win they pulled off last night. The Nuggets are the fresher team and can certainly keep this one close if at nothing else pull off the upset outright by virtue of the competitive edge they have held recently.

Once again we are itching to take the Nets on the Money Line but we will once again play it conservative. The lack of faith in Brooklyn is incredible considering they just beat one of the best teams in the Western Conference and the entire league for that matter at home in overtime. Milwaukee has many documented woes on the road this year and clearly Brooklyn plays inspired at the Barclay’s Center. The Nets have also defeated Indiana in Brooklyn this year. Surprisingly there is no overreaction to the Nets here and perhaps that can be attested to Milwaukee’s 118-101 victory against Cleveland most recently. Furthermore the Bucks’ recent campaign of triumphs over the Nets is likely driving this market. This seems to be a classic overreaction on one squad while completely dismissing the accomplishment of another. Nets with the points is the call.

Atlanta’s performances as of late does not warrant the amount of points they spot here. Many will revere Atlanta’s remarkable front court which features Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard but the Suns will work around this and circumvent these two by doing what they do best…placing the ball in the hands of Bledsoe and Booker and letting them score. Be that the Suns own a rebounding edge against the Hawks, Phoenix will look to work this angle as it has worked for them against Indiana, Portland and Detroit already this season. In addition, Atlanta commits more turnovers than Phoenix which again plays in to Phoenix’s hands. You don’t want to give this offense second chances to hurt you.

Someone has to win tonight and given the play of Brooklyn as of late, the popular opinion may be that the Clippers are going to come away with the win and end their minor skid. However, this may be a reaction to what we saw in Los Angeles earlier this season. The fact of the matter remains, Brooklyn will enter this contest with nothing to lose and likely play on the mindset that the Clips will roll them on their own court. However, the Nets have had other ideas at home this season as they have beaten teams like Indiana in Brooklyn. Given the reaction to LA’s record and their propensity for being overvalued there is likely some equity here in taking the Nets with the points. While it may be difficult to play on a team currently riding a horrendous skid, let us remind you here that road favorites in Money Line markets especially can be a dicey play when enormous juice is required. There is no such thing as free money in the NBA but to play it conservative we will simply lean on Brooklyn here with the points.

If one fact could be gathered, it would be that Russell Westbrook is a shoe-in for MVP at this point this season. There was a lot of doubt and shadow forecasted around the Thunder after Kevin Durant left for Golden State. However, Westbrook has proven otherwise. OKC currently ranks ninth in both scoring per game and field goal percentage. On the contrary, New York will likely not have an answer for a player like Westbrook as their defense gives up 106.3 points per game, placing them near the bottom of the league in scoring defense. Furthermore, the Knicks very affable to competitors from the three-point line as they allow opponents to shoot 35.4% overall. If the Knicks defense plays at this level they will likely have a long night at Madison Square Garden regardless of their conceived home court advantage. Westbrook is simply too good to leave unchecked.

The 76ers remain the black sheep of the NBA, as they have assumed that role for the previous few seasons. Nevertheless, Philly has not forgotten the events of their last encounter with the champs. The game seemed to be over by halftime, but the 76ers would roar back. Late game heroics would allow Cleveland to get away but Philly could have orchestrated the upset. Given this turn of events it is shocking that the Cavaliers are priced at this number. Nevertheless, the book is astute that this number may be a good one for Philly takes and thus why a bit more juice is required to take back the points. Expect Philadelphia to come in under the number.

The fact that these two teams met last night in New York and the Knicks won yet they are still a significant road dog throws up a red flag. The Knicks are just 1-5 on the road this year which suggests that the market has little faith this team can beat this team again if the venue was swapped. For what it’s worth it is difficult to beat the very same team two days in a row especially if the victor likely showed their hand in an overtime win. With Charlotte losing their last four and New York winning their previous three, the market assessment still positions the Knicks as a dog likely for very valid reasons. This is an ideal scenario to simply fade the public in what may be an overreaction to last night’s result.

As we have highlighted previously, in 2015 the Milwaukee Bucks ended Golden State’s twenty-four game winning streak at the Bradley Center. The Bucks almost struck the Warriors down again when Golden State came to town six days ago and the Warriors escaped by just a three ball. In Milwaukee, the Bucks are formidable foe as they have taken down teams like Memphis and Indiana in route to a 5-3 home record this season. Their most recent victim was Orlando. Toronto has had notorious troubles away from home when they in hostile confines. This is a team that won the Atlantic Division last year and won upward of 60 games in total over the span of the 2015-16 season when you include the playoffs. Yet a huge percentage of their losses were away from the Great White North. This scenario plays perfectly in to Milwaukee’s lunchbox.

The Hornets as a team are far more comparable to what many spectators have seen in years’ past. This is a team that can likely contend for the Southeast Division and it is safe to say it is no longer just Kemba Walker who is the focal point of this Hornets team. Charlotte has a workman’s mentality and is one of the best rebound teams in the league. They are also known for swarming opponents and as result lowering field goal percentages when competitors take the floor. Charlotte may once again repeat last year’s headline win if they employ a physical style of basketball which led them to decisive victories over both Indiana and Atlanta at home this season. Expect this one to be a defense-oriented affair, thus take the Under as well.

We are going to be a bit bold here and call for the Lakers outright. In doing so we reduce the juice with the slim amount of points we are given. We’ll hand the basket back to the Thunder and play on the Lakers against public expectation. The Lakers are a much improved team and while their defense is in a need of a remodel, the same argument can made for the Thunder who have given up over 103 points in their previous seven fixtures. Out of the gate, the recognizable name with the marquee player in Russell Westbrook seems to bode the most value to takers but we have reason to believe otherwise. Los Angeles has taken down teams like Golden State at home this year and it is without question while they are off the radar, the Lakers are looking to make a name for themselves and establish a narrative that they are no longer the pipsqueaks of the West.

The Pistons are a different basketball team when they are at home. The Pistons own wins over Oklahoma City, Denver, Milwaukee, New York and Orlando by considerable margins, as their average margin of victory in these contests is above 14 points. Houston’s defense has always been the issue with the Rockets and the Pistons will look to see if there are any improvements. The Pistons offense has managed to proliferate more than 103 points in eight of their last ten games even an injury to their key point man Reggie Jackson. The Pistons have made their front court much stronger since losing Greg Monroe to Milwaukee in the acquisition of forwards Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris. Lest us also forget Detroit has a beast at the five position in Andre Drummond who could be good for 20 and 10 on any given night. Detroit will likely outmuscle the Rockets who have no one to combat this trio up front. We suspect this meeting will be settled by less points than many anticipate as both squads will be focused on limiting offensive production.

Sacramento has been a tough riddle to solve as the Kings have the talent but fail to produce the wins to complement the personnel. On the contrary, the Raptors have made the most of the dynamic duo of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry and this contest should be an opportunity to get rid of a pest that has haunted Toronto for far too long. Takers are enamored by Sacramento’s recent successes against the Raps and thus the Kings are the trendier pick. The Kings have a true beast in DeMarcus Cousins on the court and while he has heralded as one of the game’s best centers, the Raptors have a perimeter attack that neutralize his presence on the court. We won’t buy in to what has happened recently as the Raptors are clearly a different team that gets better which each game they play. It is dangerous to buy in to a team that goes on streaks like the Kings because you never really know when the ride is going to end. In this instance we will side with the public here as this market opened with Sacramento as high as 5.5 point pooch until steam poured in, giving us a chance to steal a pedigree favorite at an affordable price.

Last year the BMO Bradley Center, the Milwaukee Bucks ended Golden State’s twenty-four game winning streak and since sported the mantra “Fear The Deer”. In Milwaukee, the Bucks are a dangerous team as they have taken down teams like Memphis and Indiana on their own court while taking ownership of a 4-2 home record. For Golden State, the Warriors continue to roll and they are beating everyone they come across at will setting them up perfectly for a trap game here against a perceived inferior foe. For Golden State this will be their third game since Wednesday, as they come off two road outings at Toronto and Boston. The Deers are the fresher team in this one and with the home court advantage working to their favor they can certainly keep this one within range.

At first glance takers will look at this fixture and see a typically weak opponent against the cream of the crop of the West and say this one has San Antonio written all over it. However, this would be a bit presumptuous as the Lakers are a much different team. Let us not forget that in Los Angeles, the Lakers routed the defending Western Conference Champions, the Golden State Warriors from wire-to-gate and they have not let up since then. San Antonio got off to a rough start and typically they have a lot of trouble on the road. Recently, statistics would state otherwise but this is a perfect time to fade the public that have been going in on San Antonio in the early going as the Lakers seemingly can play with any team in the league this season. The last two meetings between both parties was settled by a total of eight points overall, immense value here on the Lakers.

Teams like Los Angeles make great targets because the more they win, the more likely they will spot inflated points especially when they have been economical overall. We saw Memphis in this position last year against the Cleveland Cavaliers, where the Grizzlies won outright as a +700 road dog. Takers of the Cavaliers on the Money Line may have lost their entire bankroll for the season on that one play. It is dangerous to place money on heavy favorites that the public smothers as they have the greatest propensity for let-downs. Memphis has played three contests in the last eight days. The Clippers have played three games in the preceding five days. Memphis is the fresher team and they typically play more physical basketball. While Los Angeles may win at will, they may have to tap in to their reserves in this one to pull out a victory as this is not Minnesota or Brooklyn across the floor from them. Tremendous upside in Memphis.