Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Point Spread Pick


The Denver Nuggets continue their current five-game road trip with a stop at AmericanAirlines Arena this Friday night to face the struggling Miami Heat in an inter-conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be available on NBA League Pass.

Point Spread: Miami -10
Total Line: 214
Nuggets vs. Heat Game Overview
Denver's playoff chances ended earlier in the season after enduring a few lengthy losing streaks, but it actually comes into this matchup with a 3-2 straight-up record in its last five games. The Nuggets' latest victory came on Wednesday night with a 120-112 win over Orlando as three-point favorites on the road. They are 2-3 against the spread during this same stretch and the total has gone OVER in four of the five games. Denver is 12-20 SU on the road this season with a 15-16-1 record ATS.
The one thing the Nuggets can still do fairly well is put points on the board. They are ranked 10th in the NBA in scoring with an average of 103.6 points per game. Ty Lawson has led the way with 18.6 points. He is shooting 44.1 percent from the field and 36.2 percent from 3-point range which basically mirrors the Nuggets' overall team shooting percentages. Lawson is also dishing-out nine assists a game and JJ Hickson leads the team in rebounds with 9.1. The main problem all season long has been a defense that is allowing an average of 105.7 PPG, which is ranked 28th in the NBA.

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Miami remains in a late season funk with just one win in its last five games both SU and ATS. Its latest setback was a 96-95 loss to Brooklyn this past Wednesday night as a nine-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the 201-point closing line and it has now stayed UNDER in the last four games. The Heat's SU record at home this season fell to 25-5 and they are a costly 12-17-1 ATS in those 30 games.
This recent slide could very well be just a blip on the radar considering that Miami went 14-2 SU in its previous 16 games as part of an overall record of 44-18, but the concern for Friday night is the Heat's sudden inability to beat the teams they are supposed to. This past Sunday they lost to Chicago in overtime as 4.5-point road favorites and Monday night they struggled to cover as eight-point favorites at home in a nine-point win over Washington. In Wednesday's loss to the Nets they gave-up 22 points on turnovers and while LeBron James ended the night with 19 points it was still well below his team-high season average of 26.9 PPG.

Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends
The Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 5-13 in their last 18 games overall. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record.
The Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games at home and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games against a team from the Northwest Division. The total has stayed UNDER in their last seven games following a SU loss.
Head-to-head in this matchup, the home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last five games. Miami won the first meeting this season 97-94 in late December but it could not cover as five-point road favorites.

Betting Pick
There is little doubt that Miami wins this game SU, so the question is will it get its act together enough to cover a pretty hefty 10-point spread. I may not have all the confidence in the world betting on the Heat right now, but I do betting against Denver.