Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors Odds & Free Pick

May 18, 9:09 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
DAL+5/GS -5

With the top two seeds down and out the third-seeded Warriors and fourth-seeded Mavericks meet in the Western Conference finals series beginning Wednesday night in San Francisco. Golden State owns home-court advantage for this series and is lined as a -225 favorite to win it, with Dallas getting +185 as the underdog. Here’s how we homeworked this Game 1, with our free NBA playoffs betting pick.

NBA Betting Odds

The NBA playoffs betting lines opened Golden State as a five-point favorite for Game 1, with an over/under of right around 214.5. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Mavericks-Warriors Game 1 NBA Betting Preview

Dallas reached this Western Conference finals series by knocking off top-seeded Phoenix in seven games in a conference semi-finals series, blotting out the Suns with a 123-90 Game 7 romp in Phoenix last Sunday. The Mavericks, playing as 6.5-point dogs Sunday, took the lead for good at 2-0, led 57-27 at the half and later by 42, on their way toward that stunning victory. Dallas actually lost the first two games of that series against the Suns and later trailed 3-2, then won Games 6 and 7 by 27 and 33 points. The Mavs opened this postseason by beating Utah in six games in a first-round series, clinching that one on the road, too. So Dallas is 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS this postseason. Golden State, meanwhile, reached this conference finals by ousting Memphis in six games in the other Western semi-finals series, clinching that one with a 110-96 Game 6 win last Friday. The Warriors didn’t take the lead in that game until six minutes to go, then pulled away from there. Golden State split the first two games of that series with the Grizzlies on the road, then won the next two at home to take a 3-1 lead it wouldn’t relinquish. The Warriors opened this postseason by beating Denver in five games, after taking a 3-0 series lead. So Golden State is 8-3 SU but only 5-6 ATS this postseason. The Warriors finished one game ahead of the Mavericks in the regular-season standings but Dallas took the season series from Golden State three games to one.

NBA Betting Trends

  • Dallas is 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS on the road this postseason.
  • Golden State is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS at home this postseason.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 8-5 in Mavericks games this postseason.
  • The overs are 7-4 in Warriors games this postseason.
  • The totals split 2-2 in Mavericks-Warriors games this season, which averaged 212 total points.

Mavericks at Warriors Game 1 Prediction ATS

Golden State is the better team here, namely defensively and on the boards, with more options on the offensive end. Dallas, meanwhile, just seems a bit too dependent upon one guy to put the ball in the hole. We like the Warriors to win this series so we’re betting them to take this Game 1, too.