Monster Energy Series Ford EcoBoost 400 Pick

November 17, 4:00 PM EST

The NASCAR Cup Series closes out its 2019 season this Sunday with the running of the Ford EcoBoost 400. Race time from Homestead-Miami Speedway is set for 3 p.m. on NBC with the top four drivers in the current point standings aiming at winning this year's racing title

 Ford EcoBoost 400 Favorites and Top Value Pick

Denny Hamlin won last Sunday’s race at Phoenix to lock up a spot in the final championship field after Martin Truex Jr. got in with a victory at Martinsville, and Kevin Harvick punched his ticket to the championship race with a win at Texas. Kyle Busch rounds out the field after qualifying on points.

As a top betting site for NASCAR, 5Dimes online sportsbook has released its odds to win Sunday's race as well as this year's Cup Series racing title. Here is a closer look at the four-driver field along with my top-valued pick to win both the race and the racing championship.

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Martin Truex Jr Odds to Win Race +300 - Odds to Win Title +257

Driving the No. 19 Toyota, the 2017 Cup Series Champion comes into this final race as the leader in total point race wins this season with seven. This was part of a racing resume that includes a total of 14 runs inside the top five. He started this year’s 10-race playoff with victories at Las Vegas and Richmond. He added a third playoff win at Martinsville as the hottest of the four drivers when it comes to current form.

He placed second in last year’s championship race behind Joey Logano. Truex won at Homestead-Miami the year before to secure his first career Cup Series racing title.

Kyle Busch Odds to Win Race +300 - Odds to Win Title +257

Busch was basically unstoppable early in the season with four checkered flags in the first 14 events. His last win came at Pocono in early June. He almost broke the drought last Sunday by placing second at Phoenix to help secure a spot in this field on total points. The lack of wins in recent months driving the No. 18 Toyota does drain some value from his odds, but look for Busch to be right in the mix in the closing laps of Sunday’s race.

He won his first and only Cup Series title in 2015 with the victory in this race. Since then, all three of his runs at Homestead-Miami have been sixth or better.

Kevin Harvick Odds to Win Race +330 - Odds to Win Title: +286

The slightly higher betting odds add value to Harvick in light of the huge win at Texas. He won his only Cup Series racing title in the 2014 season when NASCAR first switched to the elimination round format for the 10-race playoff. Driving the No. 4 Ford, he posted four wins this season and ten more finishes in the top five. He also finished in the Top 10 in eight of the first nine playoff races after taking fifth last Sunday at Phoenix.

ollowing the win at Homestead-Miami in the 2014 championship series, Harvick has placed fourth or better in his next four runs. This alone adds some value to his chances to win this time around.

Denny Hamlin Odds to Win Race +330 - Odds to Win Title: +286

Hamlin is the only driver in the championship field, still looking for a Cup Series racing title. He has come close on numerous occasions only to come up short in this final race. I like the fact that he comes into this year's championship hot with the win at Phoenix and earlier at Kansas in the playoff. The No. 11 Toyota has been the most consistent car on the track all season long from the opening day victory in the Daytona 500. It has a series-high 19 Top 5 finishes in 35 events.

Overall, Hamlin has two career Cup Series victories at this track, and he has started from the pole in three of the last four events.

Top-Valued Prediction

Ever since Harvick won the racing title in 2014 under NASCAR’s new elimination round format, a different driver has gone on to win this race and the racing title. That is why I am taking Hamlin as my top-valued pick to keep that streak intact with the victory at Homestead-Miami.