Monster Energy Series First Data 500 Race Pick - Betting Lines

Monster Energy Series First Data 500 Race Pick - Betting Lines

Clayton Duke
Date: October 28, 2:30 pm
Location: Martinsville Speedway
TV: NBC Sports

Betting Odds

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Chase Elliott is making his presence known in this year’s Cup Series playoff with last Sunday’s victory in Kansas. Kyle Busch finished second in that race ahead of Kyle Larson rounding out the top three. Ryan Blaney was my top-valued pick at +1100 betting odds, but his seventh-place finish knocked him out of the race for the title.
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The following is a look at a trio of the top favorites to win Sunday’s race at Martinsville along with my top-valued driver at longer odds to win as provided by 5Dimes.
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First Data 500 Race Favorites<br />
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<b>Kyle Busch +275 </b>
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Things are starting to get serious with just four races left on the 2018 schedule. The way things have played out in the first six playoff events, Busch knows that he is going to have to win one of these next three races to guarantee the No. 18 Toyota team a spot in the four-car championship race at Homestead-Miami. Last Sunday's second-place run was a step in the right direction, but two runs way outside the top 10 in two of the previous four playoff races are not going to get it done for a team that won six times in the regular season. Fortunately, Martinsville is the perfect venue to get that win coming off a victory in this event last year.
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<b>Martin Truex Jr. +640 </b>
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The defending Cup Series Champion continues to do just enough to keep this year’s title hopes alive. However, he is another driver that understands what it takes this time of the year to seal the deal after winning four playoff races in that 2017 title run. The No. 78 Toyota posted its best finish in the last four events by taking fifth at Kansas, but this team is still looking for its first win in the postseason. Working against his odds this week is a 19.0 average finishing position at this track, but Truex did finish second in this event last year and fourth in the first race at Martinsville this season.
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<b>Brad Keselowski +640 </b>
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Keselowski came into the 10-race playoff as hot as it gets with victories at Darlington and Indianapolis to close out the regular season. For good measure, he guided the No. 2 Ford to a third-straight win at Las Vegas in the first race of the postseason. Since then, a sixth-place finish at Kansas was his best effort over the last five Cup Series events. I would give him the edge over Truex at this track at the same betting odds with an average finishing position of 12.2. Keselowski has also placed inside the top 10 in his last five races at Martinsville, including a victory in the first race of the 2017 season.
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First Data 500 Race Prediction 10/28/2018

Given just how many upsets there have been in the first six playoff events, there is betting value all over the board in this race. For a driver that was barely listed outside the top three on 5Dimes’ betting board to win all season long, Harvick’s longer odds this week look like a gift. After dominating the regular season with seven point-race victories, the best the No. 4 Ford could do in the last six events is second at Richmond. Harvick may never regain his top form and fade from the title picture, but he is just too good of a driver at these longer odds to ignore. He did finish fifth in each of his last two Cup Series races at Martinsville.

Free Pick: Kevin Harvick +1300
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