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Last week, Kyle Larson dominated the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway by leading 327 of 400 laps en route to his 2nd victory of the season. Earlier in the week, I alluded to Larson’s dominant potential in this year’s 600 and labeled him the driver to beat going into the weekend. After cashing last week's free bet at 6-1 odds, we turn our focus to NASCAR's return to Sonoma Raceway on Sunday for the running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350. NASCAR's event date was canceled at Sonoma last season due to COVID-19 complications meaning this Sunday’s race will be the first event held in wine country since 2019.
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Obviously, the style of racing will be completely different than witnessed last week at Charlotte as we move from a 1.5-mile oval to a 12 turn, 1.99-mile road course. Fortunately, Sonoma Raceway may not be the wildcard event that it was once perceived. Just a few years ago, the Cup Series only had two road course races on the schedule each year, with stops at Sonoma and Watkins Glen. However, with the increasing demand of road course races, we have seen the implementation of the ROVAL at Charlotte, followed most recently by Daytona implementing a similar road course design. Just two weeks ago, the Cup Series made its debut at Circuit of the Americas, which is one of the most challenging layouts in the country. Needless to say, this road course racing phenomenon is no longer an outlier for bettors.
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For bettors, the road course races typically focus around one driver via the reigning Cup Series Champion Chase Elliott. Elliott has been sensational at the road course events with six victories in 14 starts. In just a short time, Elliott has become one of the greatest road course talents in NASCAR history and just recently scored his 1st victory of the season at Circuit of the Americas, regarded by many as the most challenging road course venue in the country. With those factors in mind, Elliott will be everyone’s favorite this week for justifiable reasons. Personally, I will never rule out Elliott on a road course, but I am actually putting my betting focus on a few other drivers that I believe deserve equal attention at much better odds.
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Behind Elliott, Martin Truex Jr is the most decorated road course driver with four victories in 34 career starts. While Truex’s win percentage may not sound as impressive, there are a few other factors to consider for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350. For starters, Truex has won the last two races at Sonoma (2018 & 2019). The most impressive note to those wins stems from the notion that Truex captured those wins with two different teams (Furniture Row Racing & Joe Gibbs Racing). Aside from pure historical feats, I would also argue that Truex has been the best driver in NASCAR under the 750HP package this season which is utilized on the road courses and smaller tracks. As a result, I am upgrading Truex as my main favorite this week and believe he deserves the sharp betting attention.
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If you are looking for a bigger dark horse, I would suggest looking hard at Kyle Busch this week. Busch is not the biggest dark horse at 10-1 odds, but he offers enough ROI to provide sufficient value. I don’t believe this Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 will be an event that favors the underdogs, but that does not mean that we can't look outside the top favorites of Elliott and Truex. Enter Kyle Busch, who is the only driver with multiple wins at Sonoma behind Truex. Busch was the only driver that could hold a candle to the Hendrick Motorsports cars' last week at Charlotte, and it is evident the #18 team is trending in the right direction. At Sonoma, Rowdy (Busch) has been outstanding with a win and 4 top 5 finishes in the last five starts. Busch owns the highest average driver rating during that stretch and may be peaking at the right time going into Sunday’s green flag!
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