2020 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Betting Preview

Date: 
September 19, 7:30 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Following a thrilling weekend at Richmond, the Cup Series will prepare for another Saturday night short-track spectacle in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The Cup Series visited Bristol back in May, and there were plenty of fireworks. Chase Elliott and Joey Logano got tangled while racing for the lead in the closing laps, which allowed Brad Keselowski to steal the victory. Fresh off the heels of a dominant victory at Richmond, Keselowski returns to Bristol with a ton of momentum and will attempt to go for the season sweep at the most prestigious short-track in motorsports.

Last weekend was a solid betting weekend. Our free pick in Martin Truex came up one position short with a runner-up finish, and our H2H target in Joey Logano finished 3rd cashing nearly all H2H bets. This week should be another prime betting opportunity in the Cup Series because Bristol favors driver input over equipment, meaning you don't need a perfect racecar to drive to the front of the field. One driver who has proved that statement on multiple occasions is Kyle Busch, who owns eight career wins at Bristol, which is the most active drivers. Despite still being winless on the season, Busch has won three of the last six races at Bristol and is always among the betting favorites at "The World's Fastest Half-Mile."

Personally, I am not heavily focused on Kyle Busch this week or even Kurt Busch for that matter, who owns another six victories at Bristol (2nd most in Cup Series). Instead, I still favor the Team Penske cars of Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney this week, which provide solid betting targets. If you have failed to draw the connection, Team Penske has been great under the 750 horsepower and low downforce package this season used on the short-tracks. Keselowski has now won three of the seven races under this package, and Joey Logano also has a victory (Phoenix) under this rules package. More importantly, the Team Penske cars seem to always be at the front when utilizing this package, and that presents some opportunistic betting value for this Saturday's race!

From an odds perspective, both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney yield the most probabilistic value. I believe Blaney is a really sharp play this weekend after struggling in the first two races of the playoffs. Blaney needs a really strong performance at Bristol to advance to the next round of the playoffs, and luckily Bristol has been one of his best tracks. After two embarrassing performances in the last two weeks, many will likely shy away from the #12 this week. For that reason, Blaney has solid value both in overall win odds and in the form of H2H match-ups. Lastly, I am also going to vault Joey Logano's status for the 2nd straight week. I listed Logano as a driver to target in all match-ups last week and have similar expectations for him again this week. Logano appeared to be on his way towards a victory in the May race before Chase Elliott drove into his door. I expect Logano will contend for the victory again this week and perhaps be even better than we witnessed in May!

Bass pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks

Odds courtesy of BetOnline:
Joey Logano +800
Ryan Blaney +1400

I netted my biggest weekend of the season last week at Richmond with 30 units of profit! Be sure to follow me at NASCARWagers.com for official race picks and Draftkings fantasy racing advice for all of this weekend's races at Bristol!