Yankees at Mets Prediction

September 12, 8:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds


After splitting the first two games of this Subway Series, the Yankees and Mets meet for a rubber match Sunday night in Queens. The Yankees just snapped a seven-game losing skid to retain hold on one AL wild-card spot - for the moment - while dealing the Mets another loss they probably can't afford. Former Indian Carlos Carrasco hits the hill for the home team against an unknown hurler for the Yanks.

How are we playing this game with today's free pick?

MLB Betting Odds

As of this writing, Sunday's baseball betting lines were holding off on lining this game because of an open spot in the Yankees rotation. But that doesn't matter to us for our pick on this game because we've got a good idea of who it won't be.

When a line is posted on this game, our guess is it will be close to a pick 'em.

Yankees-Mets MLB Betting Preview

The Mets grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 10-3, but the Yankees took Saturday's game 8-7. The Mets won Friday as +105 underdogs on the betting line, while the Yankees won Saturday as -115 favorites.

Also, both those games played over totals of 7.5 and eight runs.

Saturday's win stopped a seven-game losing skid for the Yankees. Going back a bit further, the Yanks are just 3-11 over their last 14 games. At 79-63 overall, New York will not win the AL East - Tampa Bay's run away with that - but it sits tied with Toronto for the No. 2 spot in the American League wild-card standings.

With Saturday's loss, the Mets are 3-5 over their last eight games. At 71-72 overall, the Mets are now five games behind first-place Atlanta in the NL East and four games behind the Padres and Reds in the battle for the second NL wild-card spot. So while they're not quite dead yet, they're in big trouble.

The Mets lead the season series with the Yankees three games to two.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up

Carrasco is just 1/8 on quality starts since joining the Mets rotation six weeks ago, but he's been alright as of late. Tuesday, he allowed four runs - although only one was earned - and seven hits through five innings of a 9-4 New York victory over Miami. And over his last three starts, he's allowed six ER and 14 hits through 17 1/3 innings, with two walks against 14 strikeouts.

The Mets are 4-4 with Carrasco this season, and that's about what they should be, based on his performances.

In his most recent start against the Yankees, last year while with Cleveland, Carrasco got touched for four runs through just three innings of a 10-9 Indians defeat.

As of this writing, it wasn't certain who the Yankees would send to the mound, but word is it will probably be veteran lefty Andrew Heaney or rookie right Clarke Schmidt. Based on Heaney's recent performance, they might want to go with the rook.

Splits With the Sticks

The Yankees are batting .230 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .316 team OBP and a .395 team slugging percentage.

The Mets are slashing .239/.316/.391 this season.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 3.68 ERA this season, along with a 1.22 WHIP and a 2.84 K/BB ratio.

The Mets pen owns a 3.86 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 2.62 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Yankees are 39-32 on the road this season.
  • The Mets are 42-28 at home.
  • The Yankees are 53-40 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The Mets are 54-43 against right-handed starters this season, 17-29 against lefties.

Totals Report

Unders are 77-60 in Yankees games this season.

Unders are 70-60 in Mets games.

Unders are 40-24 in games played at Citi Field this season.

Overs are 5-2 with Carrasco this season.

Yankees at Mets Prediction 9/12/21

The Yankees slapped Carrasco around the last time they met, and New York owns the edge in the bullpen comparison. So it doesn't matter to us who starts for the Yanks, although we're hoping it's Schmidt. We're betting the Yankees for our free baseball pick for Sunday.  

Free Pick: 
Take the Yankees