World Series Game 3 Betting Preview & Moneyline Pick

Date: 
November 1, 8:03 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Hou -120/Phil +100
Total: 
7.5

After splitting the first two games of this World Series in Houston, then having Game 3 in Philadelphia rained out Monday night, the teams try again Tuesday. The underdog Phillies, now the owners of home-field advantage for this series, send lefty Ranger Suarez to the mound for Game 3 against Lance McCullers for the Astros.

How are we playing Game 3 with our free World Series pick?

World Series Betting Odds

The Game 3 betting lines opened Houston at around -120 over Philadelphia, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

The Astros opened this World Series as -180 favorites to win it, with the Phillies getting +150 as the dogs. Now, at a game apiece, the Astros are chalked at -170, with Philly getting +145.

World Series Game 3 Betting Preview

Philadelphia grabbed the opener of this World Series last Friday 6-5 in 10 innings, but Houston took Game 2 Saturday 5-2. The Phillies cashed in as +150 dogs on the Game 1 betting line, while the Astros won as -140 favorites Saturday and covered against the run line at +150.

Also, Game 1 played over a total of 6.5 runs, while Game 2 pushed a total of seven when Philly scored a meaningless run on an Astros error with two outs in the top of the ninth.

Game 3 was supposed to be played Monday night but got rained out.

With Saturday’s win, Houston is now 8-1 this postseason.

With Saturday’s loss, Philadelphia is 10-3 this postseason.

The Astros finished 19 games ahead of the Phillies in the regular-season standings and took two of three games from Philadelphia in the last series of the regular season one month ago. The Phillies won the first game of that series to clinch their playoff berth; Houston then won the last two games, which were basically meaningless to both teams.

Game 3 Pitching Match-Up

Lefty Suarez only hit 10/29 on quality starts during the regular season, and he’s 0/2 this postseason, although he hasn’t been bad. Eleven days ago, in the NLCS against San Diego, he held the Padres to two runs - one earned - and two hits through five innings of a 4-2 Philadelphia victory. And ten days before that, in the NLDS against Atlanta, he allowed one run on three hits and five walks through 3 1/3 innings of a 7-6 Phillies win.

Philadelphia played 17-12 with Suarez this season, and it’s 2-0 with him this postseason.

In his only career start against Houston, in a meaningless game one month ago, Suarez got bombed for six runs and three home runs through three frames of a 10-0 Philly defeat.

McCullers hit 5/8 on quality starts this season, and he’s 1/2 this postseason. Eight days ago, in the game that clinched the pennant against the Yankees have gave up four runs - three earned - and eight hits through five innings of a 6-5 Houston victory. And in the ALDS against Seattle, he tossed six frames of shutout ball in a 1-0 Astros win.

Houston played 5-3 with McCullers during the regular season, and it’s 2-0 with him this postseason.

In his only career start against Philadelphia, in a meaningless game four weeks ago, McCullers allowed just one run through six innings, although the Astros lost that game 3-0.

Splits With the Sticks

Houston batted .261 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .330 team OBP and a .453 team slugging percentage.

Philadelphia slashed .248/.309/.418 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen posted a 4.27 ERA this season, along with a 1.39 WHIP and a 2.32 K/BB ratio.

The Astros bullpen put up an ML-best 2.80 ERA this season, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 3.06 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Houston played 51-30 on the road this season and an ML-best 42-12 against left-handed starters.
  • Philadelphia played 47-34 at home this season and 59-57 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Unders played a lopsided 93-61 in Astros games this season.
  • The Overs played 80-75 in Phillies games this season.
  • The Overs played 40-36 at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Astros at Phillies Moneyline Prediction for Game 3

We give McCullers the edge in this pitching match-ups, and Houston also owns edges in the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. So we like the Astros here. We also like taking chances. So in, knowing the visitors will bat nine times, we’ll play Houston against the run line at a price of +125.

Free Pick: 
Take Houston on the runline