Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros Game 7

October 30, 8:08 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Astros -140/Nationals +125

The 2019 World Series comes down to a deciding seventh game, following Washington's Game 6 victory Tuesday night. The Nationals are 3-0 in this Series in Houston, and the visiting teams are 6-0 overall. Which way are we playing this last baseball game of the season with our free World Series pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB World Series betting odds opened Houston at around -140 for Game 7 over Washington, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action.

The Astros could also be found getting upwards of +155, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

World Series Game 7 Betting Set-Up

Washington faced elimination Tuesday night, down three games to two in this Series, but barged to a 7-2 victory to force this Game 7. The Nationals took a 1-0 lead in the top of the first inning Tuesday, fell behind 2-1 in the bottom of the first, but took the lead for good with two runs in the fifth and added four runs worth of insurance from there for the win.

The Nats cashed in Tuesday as +150 underdogs against Justin Verlander, and Game 6 played over a total of 7.5 runs.

In fact, in a Series in which runs were expected to be hard to come by, the overs are 4-1-1.

With Tuesday's win, Washington is 11-5 this post-season, and plus $180 in this Series, based on $100 bets on each game.

With Tuesday's loss, the Astros are 10-7 this post-season but minus $240 in this Series.

Game 7 Starting Arms

Greinke, by our strict standards, finished 22/33 on quality starts during the regular season, but he's 0/4 this post-season. Last Friday, in Game 3 of this series, he allowed one run on seven hits and three walks through 4 2/3 innings of a 4-1 Houston victory. So over his four starts in these playoffs, he's allowed 11 runs on 22 hits, including five homers, and eight walks through 18 2/3 innings.

Houston played 8-2 with Greinke this season, and it's 2-2 with him this post-season.

GREINKE started once against the Nationals during the regular season, back in June when he was still with Arizona, tossing 7 1/3 innings of two-hit, shutout ball in a 5-0 Diamondbacks win.

Scherzer finished 16/27 on quality starts this year, and he's 2/4 in these playoffs. Eight days ago, in Game 1 of this Series, he held the Astros to two runs and five hits through five innings of a 5-4 Washington win. He was then supposed to start Game 5 Sunday in Washington but scratched due to a sore neck. Supposedly he's good to go for this one, perhaps after some medication.

Over five appearances, this post-season Scherzer has allowed just six runs and 14 hits through 25 innings, with 34 strikeouts against 11 walks.

The Nationals only finished 14-13 with Scherzer during the regular season, but they're 4-0 with him this post-season.

Game 7 Batting Splits

Washington batted .258/.337/.448 against right-handed pitching this season. The Nationals only scored a total of three runs in their three losses over the weekend but broke loose with seven runs and three home runs Tuesday night.

Houston batted .274/.349/.492 against RH pitching this season, which helped this lineup rank as the best in the Majors in this split. But the Astros didn't score a run after the first inning Tuesday night.

The Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen ranked among the worst in baseball this season, posting an ML-worst 5.66 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP while allowing an .800 OPS. This unit got better, though, during the latter half of this season and closed out eight straight victories by the Nationals this post-season.

The Astros bullpen posted a 3.75 ERA this season and a 1.20 WHIP while holding foes to a .694 OPS, helping this unit rank among the top two or three bullpens in Baseball this year. But Houston relievers gave up four runs in four innings of work Tuesday night.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The visiting teams are 6-0 in this World Series.
  • Washington played 43-38 on the road this season.
  • Houston played an ML-best 60-21 at home this season.
  • Washington played 69-52 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Houston played 68-44 against RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 76-75 in Nationals games this season, while overs are 8-7 with Washington this post-season.
  • Unders played 84-71 in Astros games this season, while overs are 8-7 with Houston this post-season.
  • Unders played 39-37 in games played at Minute Maid Park this season.

Nats at Astros World Series Game 7 Free MLB Pick

We give Scherzer the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and while Houston might own statistical edges with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, those have been wiped out somewhat by Washington's recent play. So the betting value here resides with the underdog. We're going all the way with the trend on the visitors in this World Series; we like the Nationals to win Game 7.

Free Pick: 
Take the Nationals +125
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