Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Odds & Predictions

August 5, 8:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

TOR -118 MIN +108
8.5ov -117

American League playoff hopefuls clash when the Blue Jays and Twins continue a four-game series at Target Field Friday night. Newcomer Tyler Mahle hits the hill for Minnesota here against former Twin Jose Berrios for Toronto.

Here's how we homeworked this game for our free baseball betting pick.

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's baseball betting lines opened Toronto at around -125 over Minnesota, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to nine.

Blue Jays-Twins MLB Betting Preview

Toronto grabbed the opener of this series Thursday night, 9-3. The Blue Jays went hitless until the fifth inning, then banged out 12 hits from there, five for extra bases. Toronto led 3-2, then pulled away with six runs in the eighth. The Jays won Thursday as -125 favorites on the dime line and covered against the run line at a price of +125. Also, Thursday's game played over a total of 8.5 runs. With Thursday's win, Toronto is 14-4 over its last 18 games. At 59-46 overall, the Blue Jays probably won't catch the Yankees in the AL East race, but they lead the AL wild-card race by two games over second-place Seattle and three games over third-place Tampa Bay. With Thursday's loss, the Twins are just 3-6 over their last nine games. At 55-50 overall, Minnesota leads the AL Central by one game over second-place Cleveland. These teams have split four meetings so far this season.

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Mahle is 7/19 on quality starts this season, which until earlier this week he spent with Cincinnati. Last Saturday, he held Baltimore to two runs and five hits through six innings of an 8-2 Reds win. And over his last three starts, he allowed seven runs and 12 hits through 17 innings, with seven walks against 17 strikeouts. Cincinnati, a team that's 20 games under .500, played 8-11 with Mahle this season, 4-2 his last six times out. This will be Mahle's first career start against Toronto. Berrios is 10/21 on quality starts this year and four for his last five. Last Saturday, he held Detroit to one run and three hits through seven frames of a 4-1 Blue Jays win. And over his last five starts, he's allowed ten runs and 27 hits through 31 innings, with five walks against 39 whiffs. Toronto is 16-5 with Berrios this season, 6-0 his last six times out. Over three career starts against Minnesota, two last year and one earlier this season, Berrios allowed eight runs and 12 hits through 19 2/3 innings. The Jays won two of those three games.

Splits With the Sticks

Toronto is batting an ML-best .267 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .330 team OBP and a .441 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the top three in Baseball in this split. Minnesota is slashing .252/.322/.424 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Twins bullpen owns a 3.95 ERA this season, along with a 1.27 WHIP. The Blue Jays pen owns a 3.88 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

The Blue Jays are 25-25 on the road this season and 48-33 against right-handed starters. The Twins are 29-24 at home and 38-36 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Over is 54-50 in Blue Jays games this season.
  • The Over is 50-47 in Twins games.
  • The Under is 28-21 at Target Field this season.

Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

We give Berrios the edge in the pitching match-up and Toronto the edges in both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. Also, the Blue Jays are hot right now, Minnesota, not so much, and diverging trends like that mean a lot to us when handicapping baseball games. So we're betting Toronto Friday night.

Free Pick: 
Take Toronto -118