Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

September 7, 7:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

TOR -142 / BAL +131
7.5ov -115

The Blue Jays continue their effort to pull away from the Orioles in the AL wild-card chase when the teams conclude a four-game series at Camden Yards Wednesday night. Dean Kremer hopes to pull Baltimore closer here against budding ace Alex Manoah for Toronto.

Who do we like here for our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday's baseball betting lines opened Toronto and Manoah at around -155 over Baltimore and Kremer, with an over/under of 7.5. Early betting action then dipped that line about a dime down to -145.

Blue Jays-Orioles MLB Betting Preview

Toronto took the first two games of this series Monday by scores of 7-3 and 8-4 but Baltimore won Tuesday's game 9-6. So the Orioles now lead the season series with the Blue Jays seven games to five. Also, all three games in this series have played over their totals. So the overs are now 10-2 in Toronto-Baltimore games this season. Tuesday's win snapped a three-game losing skid for the Orioles. Meanwhile, Tuesday's loss snapped a five-game winning streak for the Blue Jays. At 75-60 overall Toronto sits in the No. 3 spot in the American League wild-card standings, 3.5 games ahead of 72-64 Baltimore, with time running out on this regular season.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played three weeks ago in Toronto, a 4-2 Baltimore victory. Kremer is 6/16 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Friday he held Oakland to two runs and five hits through six innings in a 5-2 Orioles win. And over his last four starts he's held opponents to six runs and 21 hits through 26 innings. Baltimore is 11-5 with Kremer this season, 4-0 his last four times out. In his only career start against the Blue Jays, that game three weeks ago, Kremer allowed just two runs and seven hits through seven innings and picked up the W. Manoah is an impressive 20/26 on quality starts this year, working on a run of three in a row. Last Friday he held Pittsburgh scoreless on five hits through 7 1/3 innings in a 4-0 Toronto win. And over his last three starts he's allowed just three runs and 13 hits through 20 1/3 innings, with five walks against 22 strikeouts. The Blue Jays are 14-12 with Manoah this season and that might be as many as six games worse than they should be, based on his performances. Over three starts already this season against the Orioles Manoah allowed seven runs and 13 hits through 16 2/3 innings, with six walks and 19 whiffs. Toronto only won one of those three games.

Splits With the Sticks

Toronto is batting .262 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .325 team OBP and a .428 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the top three in Baseball in this split. Baltimore is slashing .239/.304/.397 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Orioles bullpen owns a 3.21 ERA this season, along with a 1.20 WHIP. The Blue Jays pen owns a 3.71 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

Toronto is 37-31 on the road this season and 64-44 against right-handed starters. Baltimore is 40-27 at home but 46-47 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Over is 70-63 in Blue Jays games this season.
  • The Under is 70-60 in Orioles games.
  • The Total is split 31-31 at Oriole Park this season.
  • The Under is a combined 30-12 with Kremer and Manoah this season.
We give Manoah the edge in the pitching match-up and while Baltimore owns a slight edge in the bullpen comparison Toronto owns the edge in the splits with the sticks. Also, the Blue Jays seem to be pulling away from the Orioles, who are coming back to Earth after a great run pulled them into wild-card contention. We like Toronto for Wednesday night.
Free Pick: 
Take Toronto -145