Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins Pick 7/5/19

Date: 
July 5, 8:10 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Twins -165/Rangers +155
Total: 
10

American League playoff contenders finish off the “first half” of this MLB season as the Rangers and Twins begin a three-game series in Minneapolis Friday night. Texas has been gaining ground in the playoff races as of late, while Minnesota's been giving ground. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's MLB betting odds opened Minnesota at around -190 over Texas, with an over/under of 10.5 runs. Early betting action then dropped that line a quarter, to about -165, and dipped that total to 10.

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Rangers vs. Twins Set-Up

Texas just lost two of three games at home to the Angels this week, falling Thursday 9-3. Just before that the Rangers lost two of three at Tampa Bay. So Texas is just 1-4 over its last five games.

At 47-40 overall the Rangers trail division-leading Houston by eight games in the AL West, but they're also just a game and a half back of Cleveland in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

Minnesota, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games in Oakland, losing Thursday's series rubber match 7-2. Just before that the Twins lost two of three to the White Sox in Chicago, and just before that they lost the last game of a series against the Rays. So Minnesota is just 2-5 over its last seven games.

At 54-32 overall the Twins still lead the Indians by six games in the AL Central, and they're only 2.5 games behind the Yankees in the battle for the best record in the AL.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year Texas took the season series from Minnesota four games to two.

Friday's Starting Arms

Lefty Perez, a former Ranger, is 6/14 on quality starts this season but only one for his last seven. Last Thursday he held Tampa to two runs and three hits through seven innings, although the Twins eventually lost that game 5-2 in 18 innings. But over his previous five outings, he gave up 20 earned runs and 29 hits through 24 innings.

Minnesota is 8-6 with Perez this season, but only 2-4 over his last six starts.

This will be Perez's first-ever start against his former team.

Sampson, by our strict accounting, is only 4/11 on quality starts this year and one for his last four. Last Saturday he gave up three runs and five hits through six innings of a 5-2 Rangers loss to the Rays. And over his last four starts, he's allowed 13 ER and 25 hits, including six homers, through 21 innings.

Texas is 5-6 with Sampson this season, 1-3 over his last four starts.

This will be Sampson's first-ever start against the Twins.

Friday's Batting Splits

Texas is batting .230/.303/.406 against left-handed pitching this season.

Minnesota is batting .262/.327/.489 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Rangers bullpen owns a 4.70 ERA this season and a 1.47 WHIP while allowing an .803 OPS.

The Twins pen owns a 4.26 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP while allowing a .732 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 45-40 in Rangers games this season.
  • Overs are 43-37 in Twins games this season.
  • Unders are 21-17 in games played at Target Field this season.
  • Overs played 4-1-1 in Rangers-Twins games last season.

Rangers at Twins Prediction 07/05/2019

We're calling this pitching match-up a wash, and while Minnesota owns edges with the sticks and in the bullpen, they don't seem to warrant such a stiff price on this game. We see excellent betting value here with Texas at the underdog odds.

Free Pick: 
Take the Texas Rangers +155

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