Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Pick 6/17/19

June 17, 7:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Rays +115/Yankees -135

The top two teams in the AL East open a three-game divisional series Monday night when the Rays and Yankees get it on at Yankee Stadium. Which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday's MLB betting odds were holding off on lining this game, perhaps waiting for more certain word on who might be in or out of the New York lineup.

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Rays vs. Yankees Set-Up

Tampa Bay just split four games at home with the Angels over the weekend, winning Sunday's series finale 6-5. Just before that the Rays dropped two of three games at home to Oakland. So Tampa is just 2-4 over its last six games.

New York, meanwhile, just split four games with the White Sox in Chicago over the weekend, winning Sunday's series finale 10-3. Just before that, the Yankees split two games at home with the Mets, and just back they lost two of three in Cleveland. So New York is only 4-5 over its last nine games.

At 43-27 overall the Yanks lead the AL East by a half-game over the 43-28 Rays. But Tampa also leads the American League wild-card race by five games over both Texas and Boston.

New York leads this season series with the Rays four games to two.

Monday's Starting Arms

Tanaka is 7/14 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last three. Last Tuesday he gave up five runs – four earned – on seven hits through 6 2/3 innings of a 12-5 Yankees victory. And over his last three starts, he's allowed 12 ER and 22 hits, including four homers, through 18 2/3 innings.

New York is only 6-8 with Tanaka this season, 1-2 over his last three starts.

Over his last five starts against Tampa Bay, three last year and two already this season, Tanaka allowed six ER and 26 hits through 32 innings. Thanks to some poor run support the Yankees only won two of those five games.

Chirinos, by our stringent standards, is 4/8 on quality starts this year, and two for his last two. Last Wednesday he held the A's to two runs and seven hits through six innings, although the Rays lost that game 6-2. And just before that, he tossed eight innings of two-hit, shutout ball against the Red Sox.

Tampa is 5-3 with Chirinos starting this season.

Over his last four appearances against New York, two last year and two this season, Chirinos allowed five runs and 17 hits through 19 1/3 innings.

Monday's Batting Splits

Tampa is batting .265/.339/.457 against right-handed pitching this season.

New York is batting .264/.343/.467 against RH pitching this season. This lineup also just added the American League leader in home runs this season with the recent trade with Seattle for Edwin Encarnacion.

The Bullpens

The Rays bullpen owns a 3.33 ERA this season and a 1.23 WHIP.

The Yankees pen owns a 3.99 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

Both these bullpen rank among the top five in baseball this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 37-28 in Rays games this season.
  • Overs are 38-29 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders are 21-13 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • Overs are 3-2-1 in Rays-Yankees games this season.
  • Unders are a combined 12-8 in games started by Tanaka and Chirinos this season.

Rays at Yankees Prediction 06/17/2019

Tanaka may own the edge in the pitching match-up here but not by much. And our other baseball handicapping factors seem to even out. Our guess is New York will eventually be posted as a favorite of around -130 to -140 for this game, but if that's the case, we'll be betting on Tampa and the underdog price.

Free Pick: 
Take Tampa Bay +115

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