Tampa Bay Rays at NY Yankees Pick 7/15/19

July 15, 7:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Yankees -144 /Rays +134
8.5ov -115

MLB Betting Odds

Monday's MLB betting odds opened New York at around -155 over Tampa, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dropped that line down to -140 and the total to 8.5.

Rays vs. Yankees Set-Up

Tampa Bay just won three of four games at Baltimore over the weekend, taking the series with a 4-1 victory Sunday. Rays pitchers Ryne Stanek and Ryan Yarbrough retired the first 24 Orioles batters Sunday, coming within three outs of MLB's first-ever combined perfect game before Yarbrough gave up a meaningless run in the bottom of the ninth.

Just before the All-Star break, Tampa took the last two games of a four-game series with these Yankees. So the Rays are 5-1 over their last six games.

New York, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from Toronto over the weekend, winning Sunday's series rubber match 4-2. But just before the All-Star break, as mentioned above, the Yanks lost the last two games of that series with Tampa. So New York is only 2-3 over its last five games.

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At 59-32 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by six games over 55-40 Tampa.

New York also leads Minnesota and Houston by a game and a half each in the battle for the best record in the American League.

Tampa also leads the AL wild-card race by a game and a half over Oakland.


The Yanks lead the season series with the Rays nine games to four.

Monday's Starting Arms

Lefty Paxton is only 5/15 on quality starts this season but two for his last two. Most recently, eight days ago, he held this Tampa team to two runs and seven hits, with 11 strikeouts, through six innings, although New York lost that game 2-1. And just before that he held the Mets to one run through six frames, although the Yanks lost that game 4-2.

New York is 9-6 with Paxton this season, and while it's 0-2 over his last two starts, that's not his fault.

Over his last two starts against the Rays, the one last week and one last season while still with Seattle, Paxton allowed five runs and 12 hits through 13 innings, with 21 strikeouts.

Fellow southpaw Snell is 9/18 on quality starts this year but only one for his last five. Most recently, nine days ago, he held these Yankees to one run and five hits through five innings of a 4-3 Tampa victory. But over his four starts previous to that he allowed 18 earned runs and 21 hits through 13 innings.

The Rays are 9-9 with Snell this season, 2-0 over his last two starts.

In four starts already this season against New York Snell allowed ten runs and 17 hits through 17 innings. Tampa split those four games.

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Monday's Batting Splits

Tampa is batting .254/.321/.402 against left-handed pitching this season. The Rays also just scored 33 runs in that four-game series in Baltimore over the weekend.

New York is batting .242/.316/.402 against LH pitching this season. But the Yankees have also scored a total of just 13 runs over their last five games.

The Bullpens

The Rays bullpen owns a 3.64 ERA this season and a 1.23 WHIP while allowing a .685 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top four bullpens in Baseball at the moment.

The Yanks pen owns a 3.92 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while allowing a .709 OPS. So this unit ranks in the top seven or so bullpens in Baseball right now.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 48-39 in Rays games this season.
  • Overs are 48-40 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders are 28-19 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • Totals are split 6-6-1 in Rays-Yanks games this season.

Rays vs. Yankees Prediction 7/15/19

We're calling this pitching match-up close to a wash, and the same goes for the battling splits and the bullpen comparison. So we see betting value here with Tampa at the underdog price.
Free Pick: 
Take the Rays +134