Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians Odds & Predictions

Date: 
September 29, 6:10 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
TB -119/Cle +109
Total: 
6.5un -113

After splitting the first two games of this three-game series in Cleveland the AL Central-champion Guardians and wild-card hopeful Rays play a rubber match Thursday night. Cal Quantrill shoots for his 15th win of the season for Cleveland here against lefty Jeffrey Springs for Tampa Bay.

Which way are we going with our free TB/CLE pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s baseball betting lines opened this game at right around a pick ‘em, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action then edged Tampa Bay into a -119 favorite and the total down to 6.5.

Rays-Guardians MLB Betting Preview

Tampa Bay took the opener of this series Tuesday night 6-5 in 11 innings but Cleveland took Wednesday’s game 2-1 in 10 innings. The Rays won Tuesday as +140 underdogs on the dime line against Shane Bieber while the Guardians won Wednesday as -130 favorites.

With Wednesday’s win Cleveland is 19-4 over its last 23 games. At 87-68 overall the division-champion Guardians are already locked into the No. 3 spot for the upcoming American League playoffs, which brings their motivation for this last week of the regular season into question. We won’t be surprised if Manager Francona sits some starters from here on out.

With Wednesday’s loss Tampa is 3-5 over its last eight games. At 85-70 overall the Rays own a magic number of three, relative to Baltimore, to clinch a playoff berth.

Cleveland leads the season series with Tampa Bay three games to two.

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

Quantrill is 14/30 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Last Saturday he held Texas to one run and five hits through six innings of a 4-2 Cleveland victory. And over his last three starts he’s allowed seven runs and 22 hits through 18 1/3 innings.

The Guardians are 20-10 with Quantrill this season and 14-1 his last 15 times out!

In his one start against Tampa Bay this season, back in July, Quantrill allowed just one run and four hits through six innings, although Cleveland eventually lost that game 5-4 in extra innings.

Springs is only 4/23 on quality starts this year, pitching on a short leash. Last Friday he gave up four runs - three earned - and six hits through five frames of a 10-6 Rays win over Toronto. But over his four outings previous to that he allowed just two ER and 14 hits through 20 1/3 innings.

Tampa is 17-6 with Springs this season, 5-0 his last five times out.

In his only career start against Cleveland, back in July of this season, Springs allowed three runs and six hits through five innings of a 4-1 Rays loss.

Splits With the Sticks

Tampa Bay is batting .237 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .307 team OBP and a ..377 team slugging percentage. The Rays also batted 1/10 with runners in scoring position Wednesday night.

The Guardians are slashing .240/.304/.345 against left-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Cleveland bullpen owns a 3.05 ERA this season, along with a 1.12 WHIP.

The Tampa pen owns a 3.28 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

The Rays are 34-40 on the road this season and 64-55 against right-handed starters.

The Guardians are 41-33 at home and 26-16 against left-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 74-70 in Rays games this season.
  • The unders are 77-72 in Guardians games.
  • The unders are 36-34 at Progressive Field this season.

Rays vs. Guardians Betting Prediction 9/29/22

This pitching match-up looks about like a wash, as do the splits with the sticks and bullpen comparison. So the line on this game is about right. But Tampa Bay is still trying to secure a playoff berth while Cleveland is already locked into its playoff spot, which brings the Guardians’ motivation into question. Also, while the Rays batted 1/10 with RISP Wednesday in our minds that just sets them up for a little better luck next time out. We’re betting Tampa Thursday night.
 
Free Pick: 
Take Tampa Ba