St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Pick 9/19/19
This is the first game of a big four-game series between these NL Central rivals. The Cardinals have the division lead with a three game lead over the Brewers and Cubs, who they face seven times in their last 10 games. In their last game the Cardinals beat the Washington Nationals 5-1. They scored their five runs on eight hits and the Nationals were held to one run on nine hits. St. Louis went deep twice in the game with Tommy Edman and Matt Wieters each hitting two-run shots. The Cubs lost their last game 3-2 to the Cincinnati Reds in 10 innings. They scored two runs on only four hits and the Reds scored three runs on 10 hits. After losing two in a row the Cardinals have won two of their last three games and the Cubs have lost two in a row after a five-game win streak. This season the Cardinals rank 21st in runs scored and 5th in team ERA and the Cubs rank 10th in runs scored and 6th in team ERA.
Pitching Match Up
St. Louis: Jack Flaherty (10-8 3.05 ERA)
Chicago: Kyle Hendricks (11-9 3.26 ERA) The Cardinals had won two in a row with Flaherty on the hill but in his last outing he gave up three earned runs on five hits in six innings in a 5-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. He had not given up an earned run in his two starts previous to his last one and before his last one he had not given up more than two earned runs in 12 straight starts. the Cardinals are 2-2 in Flaherty’s four starts against the Cubs this season losing both games in Chicago where he totaled nine 1/3 innings and gave up seven earned runs. In eight career appearances against the Cubs, including seven starts, Flaherty is 2-2 with an ERA of 3.60. St. Louis has lost five of his last six road starts against a team with a winning record. The Cubs have won Hendricks’ last five starts and he has been great in his last three outings. He has given up one earned run in each of his last three starts and his last one he gave up seven hits in six innings in a 14-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. In his last six starts he has given up one earned run or less in five of them. Hendricks has dominated the Cardinals this season going 3-0 against them with an ERA of only 0.39. In his career facing the Cardinals he has 17 starts and is 8-2 with an ERA of 2.74.
The Cubs are 21-5 in their last 26 home games against the Cardinals. In the last 4 games between these teams the total has gone Under every time. In the last 16 games between these teams in Chicago the Over record is 11-4-1.
Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records
St. Louis Cardinals: 85-67 SU / O/U 62-82 / Run Line W/L 82-70 Chicago Cubs: 82-70 SU / O/U 68-77 / Run Line W/L 74-78
Key Betting Trends
- STL is 27-12 in their last 39 games
- STL is 7-20 in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning record
- STL has an Under record of 3-1-1 in their last 5 games
- CHI is 5-2 in their last 7 games
- CHI is 47-23 in their last 70 home games
- CHI has an Under record of 5-2-1 in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record
The Cardinals and Cubs meet in this four-game series and then face off in St. Louis for a three game set in the last series of the season. They took two of three games from the Cubs only giving up three runs in the series when they met last in late July and early August. The Cubs were riding high with a five-game win streak where they averaged 11.8 runs per game before losing their last two games only totaling four runs. They are tied with the Brewers three games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central and tied with the Brewers for the 2nd NL Wild Card 1.5 games back of the Nationals and three games up on the Phillies and Mets. After this series the Cubs are only the road for their next two series facing the Pirates and Cardinals.
CARDINALS RP Brett Cecil has recently been transferred to the 60-day DL and is expected to be out until late September. CUBS 1B Anthony Rizzo and 2B Javier Baez are both out indefinitely and while RP Craig Kimbrel is probable for this game the team still has three relievers out until the end of this month.
Cards vs. Cubs Prediction 9/19/19
To say this is a big series is an understatement. This is the first game of seven remaining for these teams and how those games turn out will affect the playoff picture. Not sure why oddsmakers have the Cardinals as the slight favorite in this one, as Hendricks has been great facing St. Louis and he has pitched great as of late. On top of that the Cubs have won all six home games facing the Cardinals this season. Look for this to be a pitcher’s duel with Hendricks and Flaherty each having great outings. However, the Cubs will find a way to win late and in a close and low scoring affair Chicago will take the first game of this series.