St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Odds & Predictions

July 10, 7:15 PM EDT

Betting Odds

St. L +105/Cubs -115

After taking the opener of this NL Central rivalry series Friday night, the Cubs shoot for their first series victory in over a month when the teams meet again Saturday evening at Wrigley Field. Zach Davies, no stranger to St. Louis, takes the pill for the Cubs against lefty Kwang-Hyun Kim for the Cards. Who do we like here for our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday's baseball betting lines opened the Cubs at around -125 over the Cardinals, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line to -115.

Cardinals-Cubs MLB Betting Preview

Chicago took the opener of this series Friday afternoon 10-5. The Cubs scored three runs in the bottom of the first inning to take the lead for good, then broke open a close game with five more in the seventh. Chicago won as a -145 favorite with Kyle Hendricks, and the game played over a total of 7.5 runs.

With Friday's win, the Cubs are now 2-12 over their last 14 games.

With Friday's loss, St. Louis is 2-4 over its last six games.

At 44-45 and 43-46, respectively, Chicago and the Cardinals trail division-leading Milwaukee by 8.5 and 9.5 games in the NL Central. They're also eight and nine games behind San Diego in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

The Cubbies lead the season series with the Cards six games to one.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Davies is only 4/18 on quality starts this season, although some of that has to do with a short leash. Five times he's pitched to within three outs or less of a QS, only to get pulled. Monday, he held Philadelphia to two runs and four hits through five innings in a game Chicago eventually lost 13-2. And over his last three starts, he's held opponents to four runs and six hits through 15 innings, although he's also walked ten guys over that span.

On the season, the Cubs are 10-8 with Davies, but 1-3 over his last four starts.

In two starts already this season against the Cardinals, Davies scattered six hits and five walks over 11 2/3 scoreless innings. Chicago won both those games by scores of 2-1 and 2-0.

Lefty Kim is just 2/14 on quality starts this year, but some of that is also due to a short leash. Four times he's pitched to within three outs of a QS, only to get pulled. Monday, he held San Francisco scoreless on three hits through seven innings of a 5-3 St. Louis victory. And just before that, he held Arizona to one run through five frames of a 7-4 Cards win.

St. Louis is 8-6 with Kim this season, 3-2 his last five times out.

In his only previous career start against the Cubbies, in August of last season, Kim allowed one run and three hits through 3 2/3 innings of a 3-1 Cardinals win.

Splits With the Sticks

St. Louis is batting .227 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .297 team OBP and a .374 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those cause us to rank this lineup among the worst five or so in the Majors in this split.

Chicago is slashing .255/.329/.424 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Cardinals bullpen owns a 4.42 ERA this season, along with a 1.43 WHIP and a 1.64 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those cause us to rank this unit among the bottom half-dozen or so bullpens in Baseball right now.

The Cubs pen owns a 3.37 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 2.36 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals are 20-28 on the road this season.
  • The Cubs are 28-16 at home this season.
  • The Cardinals are 32-37 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The Cubs are 14-11 against left-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

The Under is 42-41 in Cardinals games this season.

The Under is 48-36 in Cubs games this season.

The Under is 22-20 in games played at Wrigley Field this season.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Predictions 7/11/21

While we're calling today's pitching match-up a push we're also giving Chicago our handicapping check-marks in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Also, following that 11-game losing skid we expect the Cubs to begin to bounce back. They're better than that. St. Louis, meanwhile, continues to puzzle us. Maybe the Cardinals are just bad; some of their numbers seem to say that. So we like the Cubbies for our free baseball betting pick for Saturday.

Free Pick: 
Take the Cubs -11