St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves Pick

October 3, 5:02 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Cardinals +115 / Braves -135

This game is the first of the National League Division Series.

In their last game of the regular season, the Cardinals beat the Chicago Cubs 9-0. The Cardinals scored nine runs on nine hits, and the Cubs were held scoreless on only three hits. St. Louis scored eight of the nine runs in the first three innings.

In the Braves' last game of the regular season, they lost to the New York Mets 7-6 in 11 innings. The Braves scored six runs on 11 hits, and the Mets scored seven runs on 15 hits.

Heading into the playoffs, the Braves lost five of their last six games, including their last three, and the Cardinals had lost four in a row before winning their season finale.

This season the Cardinals rank 19th in runs scored and 5th in team ERA, and the Braves rank 7th in runs scored and 10th in team ERA.

Pitching Match-Up

St. Louis: Miles Mikolas (9-14 4.16 ERA)

Atlanta: Dallas Keuchel (8-8 3.75 ERA)

The Cardinals won two of Mikolas' last three starts, and in his last one, he gave up one earned run on eight hits in seven 2/3 innings in a 3-2 win over the Chicago Cubs. He had given up three earned runs in each of his previous two starts. In his lone start against the Braves in St. Louis on May 24th, Mikolas gave up three earned runs on seven hits in seven innings in a 5-2 loss. This season he was 4-8 with an ERA of 5.02 in 17 road starts, and this game will be his first career post-season appearance. The Cardinals are 6-2 in Mikolas’ last eight road starts against a team with a winning record.

The Braves lost Keuchel's last three starts of the season, and in his last one, he gave up four earned runs on seven hits, including two HR, in five innings in a 4-2 loss to the New York Mets. In his last three starts, he gave up 11 earned runs in 16 innings. In 10 career playoff appearances, including nine starts, Keuchel is 4-2 with an ERA of 3.31. He has not faced the Cardinals since the 2016 season when he was with the Houston Astros. The Braves have won five of Keuchel’s last seven home starts.

Betting Angles

  • The Braves are 4-1 in their last five games against the Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals are 9-3 in their last 12 road games against the Braves.
  • In the last five games between these teams, the Under record is 4-1.
  • In the last seven games between these teams in Atlanta, the Over record is 6-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

St. Louis Cardinals: 91-71 SU / O/U 69-85 / Run Line W/L 88-74

Atlanta Braves: 97-65 SU / O/U 76-78 / Run Line W/L 82-80

Key Betting Trends

  • STL is 1-4 in their last five games
  • STL is 6-2 in their previous eight road games
  • STL has an Over record of 4-0 in their past four games
  • ATL is 36-16 in their last 52 home games
  • ATL is 1-5 in their last six games
  • ATL has an Under record of 23-9-1 in their previous 33 home games

Team Info

The Cardinals had given up 28 runs in losing four games in a row before shutting out the Cubs in their season finale. In their one road series against the Braves this season, they took the first game-winning 14-3 but lost the next two games being outscored 14-2.

In the middle of July, the Cardinals were one game under .500 but finished the season going 47-26.

The Braves limp into the playoffs losing their last three games being swept in a series facing the New York Mets. They have not won a playoff series since 2001, and they have lost five of their last seven home playoffs games. The Cardinals have lost six of their previous seven playoffs games.

Key Injuries


2B Kolten Wong is listed as probable for this game while SP Michael Wacha is out indefinitely, and RP Brett Cecil is out until mid-October.


OF Ronald Acuna Jr. is listed as probable for this game, and 3B Josh Donaldson is listed as questionable.

Cardinals at Braves Prediction 10/3/19

The Braves are hoping that the injuries to stars Ronald Acuna Jr., who missed the last four games of the regular season, and Freddie Freeman are healed, as they are key pieces to the lineup and on the season combined for 79 HR. Keuchel did not finish the season well in his last three starts but does have post-season success, which is why the Braves signed him in June. This start will be Mikolas' first career postseason appearance, and I predict that the Atlanta lineup will get to him. Keuchel will have a good outing and with reliable run support the Braves will take it.

Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta -135

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