St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies Odds & Picks & Predictions

Date: 
July 1, 6:05 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
STL -137 / PHI+127
Total: 
9.5un -113

National League playoff contenders meet when the Cardinals and Phillies open a three-game series in Philly Friday night. Miles Mikolas and his 0.96 WHIP take the mound for St. Louis here against young lefty Bailey Falter for Philadelphia.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's baseball betting lines opened St. Louis and Mikolas at around -135 over Philadelphia and Falter, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Cardinals a nickel to -140 at many sportsbooks.

St. Louis could also be found getting around +110, giving the run and a half on the run line.

Cardinals-Phillies MLB Betting Preview

St. Louis just took two of three games at home from Miami, missing out on the sweep by losing Wednesday's series finale 4-3 on a Marlins home run in the top of the ninth inning. The Cardinals then had Thursday off.

Just before that, St. Louis lost two of three to the Cubs, and just before that, they split four games with Milwaukee. Going back a bit further, the Cardinals are only 1-2-1 over their last four series and 6-8 over their last 14 games.

At 43-35 overall, St. Louis trails the first-place Brewers by one game in the NL Central and owns the No. 3 spot in the NL wild-card standings.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, just lost two of three games at home to Atlanta, avoiding the sweep with a 14-4 victory Thursday. Just before that, the Phillies took three of four at San Diego but just before that; they got swept two games at Texas. So Philadelphia is 1-2 over its last three series and 4-6 over its last ten games.

At 40-37 overall, the Phillies trail the first-place Mets by 7.5 games in the NL East but also sit only 2.5 games back of the Cardinals in the battle for that third and final NL wild-card spot.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year Philly took the season series from St. Louis four games to three.

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Falter is 0/3 on quality starts this season, to go along with four appearances in relief. Most recently, two weeks ago against the Nationals, he allowed three runs and five hits, including two home runs, through five innings of a game. Philadelphia eventually won 8-7 in 10 innings. So on the season, he's allowed 13 runs - 10 earned - and 22 hits through 20 innings.

The Phillies are 2-1 with Falter this season, but that's probably a game better than it should be.

This will be Falter's first career action against St. Louis.

Mikolas, by our tough accounting, is 9/15 on quality starts this year, working on a run of four in a row. Last Saturday, he held the Cubs to one run and four hits through six innings, with one walk against eight strikeouts, in a 5-3 Cardinals victory. And over his last four starts, he's allowed just six runs - five earned - and 12 hits through 29 innings, with four walks and 27 whiffs.

St. Louis is 9-6 with Mikolas this season, and all nine of those wins came by at least two runs.

This will be Mikolas' first action against Philadelphia since 2019, and that's already kind of a long time ago.

Splits With the Sticks

St. Louis is batting .270 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .338 team OBP and a .443 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split.

Philadelphia is slashing .245/.309/.410 against right-handed pitching. This line-up is also now operating without Bryce Harper (thumb) and Jean Segura (finger).

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.05 ERA this season, along with a 1.36 WHIP.

The Cardinals' pen owns a 3.69 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

St. Louis is 19-19 on the road this season and 9-6 against left-handed starters.

Philadelphia is 20-19 at home and 26-27 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Overs are 39-35 in Cardinals games this season.
  • The Overs are 41-32 in Phillies games.
  • The Overs are a combined 10-7 with Falter and Mikolas this season.
  • The Overs are 19-18 at Citizens Bank Park this season

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Cards at Phillies Prediction 7/1/22

We give St. Louis our handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up, the splits with the sticks, and the bullpen comparison. So we like the Cardinals here. We also like taking chances. So in knowing the visitors will bat nine times, we'll chase the better price and play St. Louis against the run line.

Free Pick: 
Take St. Louis -1.5 +1.15