St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Odds & Predictions
The Cardinals and Brewers are tied for first place in the NL Central heading into the opener of a four-game series in Milwaukee Monday night. Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes takes the mound for the home team here against Miles Mikolas, coming off a near no-hitter for St. Louis.
Who do we like for our free baseball betting pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Monday's baseball betting lines opened Milwaukee and Burnes at around -150 over St. Louis and Mikolas, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action then bumped the Brewers to -160, and that total to 7.5.
Cardinals-Brewers MLB Betting Preview
St. Louis just dropped two of three games at Boston over the weekend, losing Sunday's series rubber match 6-4. Just before that, the Cardinals took three of four from Pittsburgh, and just before that, they took two of three from Cincinnati. So St. Louis is 2-1 over its last three series and 6-4 over its last ten games.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee swept three games at the Reds, winning Sunday's series finale 6-3. Just before that, the Brewers lost two of three at the Mets, and just before that, they lost two of three at Washington. So Milwaukee finished its nine-game road trip 5-4.
At 38-30 overall, these two teams are tied for the lead in the NL Central, 10.5 games ahead of the third-place Pirates.
These teams have split eight meetings so far this season.
Monday's Pitching Match-Up
This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played three weeks ago in St. Louis, an 8-0 Milwaukee victory.
Burnes is 9/13 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday, he held the Mets to two runs and five hits through six innings, with zero walks against eight strikeouts, in a 10-2 Brewers win. But over his two starts previous to that, he allowed eight runs - six earned - on 11 hits and seven walks through just eight innings of a pair of Milwaukee losses.
The Brewers are 7-6 with Burnes this season, and that's actually a game or two worse than it should be, based on his performances.
Over his last five starts against St. Louis, four last year, and the one three weeks ago, Burnes allowed just four runs and 16 hits through 29 innings, with six walks against 39 whiffs. Milwaukee won three of those five games.
Mikolas is 8/13 on quality starts this year and two for his last two. Last Tuesday, he came within one strike of a no-hitter against Pittsburgh before allowing the only hit of the game, getting the win in a 9-1 Cardinals victory. And just before that, he held Tampa Bay to two runs and three hits through eight innings, although St. Louis lost that game 2-1.
The Cardinals are 8-5 with Mikolas this season, and that's at least a game or two worse than it should be.
Over the last four starts against the Brewers, two last year and two already this season, Mikolas allowed 12 runs and 23 hits through 25 innings. St. Louis split those four games while three of those games played over their totals.
Splits With the Sticks
St. Louis is batting .252 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .320 team OBP and a .398 team slugging percentage. The Cardinals have also scored at least five runs six times over their last nine games.
Milwaukee is slashing .238/.312/.413 against right-handed pitching. The Brewers have also scored at least five runs six times over their last nine games.
The Brewers bullpen owns a 3.69 ERA this season, along with a 1.25 WHIP. But this unit is operating without closer Hader (personal).
The St. Louis pen owns a 3.84 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.
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MLB Betting Trends
- The Cardinals are 17-17 on the road this season and 31-24 against right-handed starters.
- The Brewers are 15-12 at home and 27-17 against RH starters.
- The overs are 36-29 in Cardinals games this season.
- The overs are 32-31 in Brewers games.
- The overs are 14-12 at American Family Field this season.
- The overs are a combined 13-10 with Burnes and Mikolas this season.
Cardinals at Brewers Prediction 6/20/22
Burnes gets our check-mark in the pitching match-up thanks to the much better past performance against tonight's opponents. From there, we give St. Louis a slight edge with the sticks while calling the bullpen comparison a wash. So when we add it up, Milwaukee's advantages do not warrant so high a price. Betting baseball is often about betting value on the dime line, and we like the value with the Cardinals getting that underdog price.