St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Odds & Free Pick

Date: 
April 16, 7:10 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
STL +103/MIL -113
Total: 
8.5un -120

After splitting the first two games of this four-game NL Central series, the Brewers battle the Cardinals again Saturday night in Beer City. Adrian Houser, Milwaukee's No. 4 man in the rotation, hits the hill here against lefty Steven Matz for the visitors.

Here's how we homeworked this game with our free baseball betting pick.

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday's baseball betting lines opened this game at right around a pick 'em, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped Milwaukee a dime to -120.

Cardinals-Brewers MLB Betting Preview

Milwaukee took the opener of this series Thursday afternoon 5-1, but St. Louis grabbed Friday's game 10-1. The Brewers won as -140 favorites Thursday while the Cardinals won as +135 dogs Friday.

Milwaukee opened this season by losing two of three games to the Cubs in Chicago, then took two of three at Baltimore. The Brewers are playing against a "season wins" over/under this season of 88.5.

St. Louis opened this season by taking two of three games at home from Pittsburgh, then took the only game of a weather-shortened series with Kansas City. The Cardinals are playing against a wins O/U of 85.5 this season.

Last year division champion Milwaukee finished five games ahead of St. Louis in the NL Central standings, but the Cardinals took the season series from the Brewers 11 games to eight.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Houser is looking to go a little longer than he did in his first start of this season Monday at Baltimore when he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks through just 3 2/3 innings of a 2-0 Milwaukee defeat. Last year Houser only hit 7/26 on quality starts, but the Brewers played 17-9 with him.

In four starts last year against St. Louis, Houser was awesome, allowing just one run and 17 hits through 25 innings, with eight walks against 14 strikeouts. Milwaukee won three of those four games.

Matz, meanwhile, is also looking for a better performance Saturday after giving up seven runs - four on one swing of the bat - and nine hits through just three innings of a 9-4 Cardinals loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday. Last year, pitching for Toronto, Matz hit 9/29 on quality starts, as the Blue Jays played 15-14 with him.

This will be Matz's first start against Milwaukee since 2019 when he was with the Mets, and that's kind of already a long time ago.

Splits With the Sticks

St. Louis is batting .250 against right-handed pitching this season (156 AB), with a .333 team OBP and a .410 team slugging percentage. The Cardinals have also scored at least six runs four times through their first six games.

Milwaukee is "slashing" .203/.267/.319 against left-handed pitching this season. The Brewers have also been shut out twice already through their first eight games.

The Bullpens

The St. Louis bullpen owns a 1.78 ERA this season (25 1/3 IP), along with a 1.07 WHIP.

The Milwaukee pen owns a 2.97 ERA (33 1/3 IP) and a 1.35 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Cardinals played 45-36 on the road last season.
  • The Brewers played 45-36 at home last season.
  • The Cardinals played 66-59 against right-handed starters last season.
  • The Brewers played 20-19 against left-handed starters last season.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 4-1 in Cardinals games this season.
  • The totals are 3-3 in Brewers games this season.
  • The overs played 39-36 at American Family Field last season.
  • The overs played 18-8 with Houser last season, although much of that was due to good run support.
  • The overs played 14-13 with Matz last season.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction 4/16/22

We give Houser the edge in the pitching match-up, but St. Louis owns an edge with the sticks. Then, we'll call the bullpen comparison about even. Now, Houser was great against St. Louis last year, but he was also a little lucky. The Cardinals put most balls in play, just not for hits. That kind of thing tends to even out over time. Betting baseball is often about betting the value we find on the dime lines, and we like the value with St. Louis here at the underdog price. 

Free Pick: 
Take the Cards + 110