St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Analysis & ML Prediction

Date: 
September 27, 8:40 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Stl -115 / Mil +105
Total: 
8.5

The soon-to-be NL Central champion Cardinals and wild-card hopeful Brewers close out their 19-game season series with a quick two-game set in Milwaukee beginning Tuesday night. Adrian Houser gets the call for the Brew Crew here against Miles Mikolas for St. Louis.

Which way are we going for our free STL/MIL pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday's baseball betting lines opened this game at right around a pick 'em, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action has driven the Cards up to -115 and the total up a half run to 8.5.

Cardinals-Brewers MLB Betting Preview

St. Louis just dropped two of three games at the Dodgers over the weekend, losing Sunday's series rubber match 4-1. The Cardinals then had Monday off.

Just before that, St. Louis lost two of three at San Diego, and just before that, it lost the last game of a series with Cincinnati. So the Cardinals are 2-5 over their last seven games.

At 89-65 overall, though, St. Louis leads second-place Milwaukee by 6.5 games in the NL Central, with a magic number of three to clinch the division title.

The Brewers, meanwhile, just took three of four games at Cincinnati over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday 2-1. Milwaukee then also had Monday off.

Just before that, the Brewers lost two of three to the Mets, while just before that, they took two of three from the Yankees. So Milwaukee is 6-4 over its last ten games.

At 82-71 overall, the Brewers probably won't catch the Cardinals in the divisional race, but they only trail Philadelphia by a game and a half in the battle for the third and final NL wild-card spot.

St. Louis leads the season series with Milwaukee nine games to eight.

Tuesdays' Pitching Match-Up

Houser is just 4/20 on quality starts this season, going pretty mediocre throughout. Last Wednesday, he held the Mets scoreless on three hits through 4 2/3 innings of a 6-0 Milwaukee victory. But just before that, the Yankees got him for five runs - four earned - through just three innings, although the Brewers rallied to win that game 7-6 in extras.

Milwaukee is only 9-11 with Houser this season, and that's about what it should be, based on his performances.

Over six career starts against St. Louis, four last season and two earlier this season; Houser allowed seven ER and 30 hits through 34 2/3 innings. The Brewers split those six games.

Mikolas is 18/31 on quality starts this year but only one for his last three. Last Wednesday, he held the Padres to one unearned run and three hits through six innings, although the Cardinals lost that game 1-0. But over his two starts previous to that, he gave up seven runs and 13 hits, including three home runs, through 11 innings.

St. Louis is 17-14 with Mikolas this season but 0-3 his last three times out.

Over his last six starts against Milwaukee, two last season and four already this season, Mikolas allowed 16 ER and 31 hits through 39 1/3 innings. The Cardinals split those six games.

Splits With the Sticks

The Cardinals are batting .249 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .319 team OBP and a .409 team slugging percentage. St. Louis has also been held to two runs or less six times over its last eight games.

The Brewers are slashing .242/.320/.431 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Milwaukee bullpen owns a 3.93 ERA this season and a 1.22 WHIP.

The Cardinals pen owns a 3.65 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • St. Louis is 38-38 on the road this season and 65-54 against right-handed starters.
  • The Brewers are 42-30 at home and 57-47 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 76-73 in Cardinals games this season.
  • The Overs are 73-69 in Brewers games.
  • The Overs are 35-32 at American Family Field this season.

Cardinals vs. Brewers ML Prediction 9/27/22

Mikolas owns the edge in the pitching match-up while the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison come out about even. Also, St. Louis has an MVP candidate in Goldschmidt, while Milwaukee strikes out too much. So we're betting the Cardinals Tuesday night.

Free Pick: 
Take St. Louis -115