Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Odds & Predictions

September 6, 7:10 PM EDT

The upstart Seattle Mariners are playing themselves into serious playoff contention, heading into a suddenly very interesting three-game series with the AL West-leading Astros in Houston beginning Monday night. Seattle figured to be an afterthought in the American League this season, but instead, it's hanging tough into September. Lefty Yusei Kikuchi hits the hill for the Mariners here against Lance McCullers for the Astros. How are we playing this game with today's free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday's baseball lines opened Houston at around -205 for this game, with an over/under of 8.5. Early betting action then dipped the Astros to -195.

Mariners-Astros MLB Betting Preview

Seattle just swept three games from Arizona over the weekend, winning Sunday's series finale 10-4 by scoring seven runs in the top of the 11th inning. Just before that, the Mariners took two of three games from these Astros. Going back a bit further, Seattle is 3-1 over its last four series and 9-4 over its previous 13 games. Houston, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at San Diego, losing Sunday's series rubber match 4-3 on a Padre's homer in the bottom of the ninth. Just before that, the Astros lost two of three to the Mariners. So Houston is 0-2 over its last two series and 2-5 over its previous seven games. At 79-57 overall, the Astros lead the AL West by 4.5 games over the 75-62 Mariners. But Seattle is also just three games behind Boston in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot. Houston leads this season series nine games to seven.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a three-match of two games played earlier this season, one a 12-3 Houston victory, the other a 4-0 Seattle triumph. McCullers is 9/23 on quality starts this season, and while he's only one for his last four, he's actually been good. Last Tuesday, he held this Seattle team scoreless on four hits through five innings, although Houston lost that game 4-0. And over his last four starts, he's allowed eight runs and 20 hits through 23 1/3 innings, with nine walks against 26 strikeouts. The Astros are 14-9 with McCullers this season, and that's about what they should be. Over three starts already this season against the Mariners, McCullers allowed six runs and 15 hits through 17 innings. Houston played 2-1. By our strict standards, Kikuchi is 10/25 on quality starts this year and only one for his last five. Last Tuesday, he tossed seven innings of four-hit, shutout ball in that 4-0 Seattle win over these Astros. But over his three starts previous to that, he got nicked for 14 runs on 16 hits and eight walks through 12 total innings. On the season, the Mariners are 13-12 with Kikuchi, and they should probably be a game or two better than that. Over five starts already this season against Houston, Kikuchi allowed 15 earned runs and 25 hits through 28 2/3 innings. Seattle played 3-2.

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Splits With the Sticks

This season, Seattle is batting .221 against right-handed pitching, with a .302 team OBP and a .378 team slugging percentage.

Houston is slashing .272/.341/.437 against left-handed pitching. Numbers like those lead us to rank this lineup among the top three in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Seattle bullpen owns a 3.80 ERA this season, along with a 1.21 WHIP and a 2.91 K/BB ratio. The Houston pen owns a 4.11 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.55 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Seattle is 35-33 on the road this season.
  • Houston is 41-25 at home.
  • Seattle is 47-38 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Houston is 30-24 against left-handed starters.

Totals Report

Overs are 68-66 in Mariners games this season. Overs are 71-59 in Astros games. Overs are a combined 27-21 with McCullers and Kikuchi this season.

Mariners vs. Astros Prediction 9/6/21

We'll give McCullers a short edge in the pitching match-up, and while Seattle owns a short edge in the bullpen comparison, Houston owns an edge with the sticks. So most signs point toward the Astros here. However, those advantages do not warrant so high a line. Also, the Mariners are playing good ball as of late while Houston's treading water. So we like the baseball betting value here with Seattle at that very attractive underdog price. 

Free Pick: 
Take Seattle +175