San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick

September 17, 7:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Padres +125 / Brewers -135

This game is the 2nd of a four-game series, and the Brewers won Game 5-1. They scored five runs on eight hits, and the Padres scored one run on only two hits. Milwaukee's Cory Spangenberg was 2 for 3 with three RBI, and Travis Shaw hit a pinch-hit HR. The Brewers have won three in a row and nine of their last ten games while the Padres are in the midst of a five-game losing streak. This season the Padres rank 25th in runs scored and 18th in team ERA and the Brewers rank 20th in runs scored and 17th in team ERA.

Pitching Match-Up

San Diego: Chris Paddack (9-7 3.38 ERA)
Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff (11-3 3.75 ERA) The Padres have won two of Paddack's last three starts where he has been lights out, and he has not given up any earned runs in his previous two starts. In his last start, he tossed six scoreless innings and only allowed three hits in a 4-0 win over the Chicago Cubs. This start is his first of the season against the Brewers and in his last two road starts he has only given up one earned run in 12 1/3 innings. However, the Padres are only 1-4 in Paddack's last five road starts and 1-5 in his previous six road starts against a team with a winning record. Woodruff is making his first start since July 21st after missing several weeks with an oblique injury. The Brewers have won his last two starts, but his last one only lasted three innings after giving up four earned runs exiting the game early with the injury. He faced the Padres in San Diego on June 18th and gave up four earned runs on seven hits in six innings in a 4-1 Milwaukee loss. Woodruff will be on a limited pitch count in this game after coming off the DL with fellow starter Gio Gonzalez slated to come in early. This season Woodruff is 9-0 with an ERA of 3.24 at home.

Betting Angles

The Padres had won four straight against the Brewers before losing Game 1 of this series. In the last seven games between these teams in Milwaukee, the Over record is 5-2.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

San Diego Padres: 68-82 SU / O/U 70-70 / Run Line W/L 71-79
Milwaukee Brewers: 81-69 SU / O/U 65-80 / Run Line W/L 74-76

Key Betting Trends

  • SD is 0-5 in their last five games
  • SD is 0-7 in their last seven road games
  • SD has an Under record of 5-2 in their previous seven games against a team with a winning record
  • MIL is 4-0 in their last four home games
  • MIL is 9-1 in their previous ten games
  • MIL has an Under record of 7-2 in their previous nine home games

Team Info

The Padres have been out of the playoff picture for a long time, and they have the 4th fewest wins in the NL. In their series before this one facing the Colorado Rockies, they were swept in a three-game set where they gave up double digits in runs in each game. In the first series between these teams, this season in mid-June the Padres swept the Brewers outscoring them 14-8 in the three games. With their hot streak as of late, the Brewers have gotten back in the playoff race, as they are three games out of first place in the NL Central and one game out of the 2nd NL Wild Card. In the nine wins in their last ten games, the Brewers have only given up an average of 3.3 runs per game.

Key Injuries

PADRES The Padres have been hit hard by injuries this season, especially the pitching staff, and for this game, both OF Hunter Renfroe and C Francisco Mejia are listed on the injury report as questionable. BREWERS 2B Keston Hiura is questionable for this game with a hamstring injury, and C Manny Pina is sidelined with a concussion and does not have a timetable to return. The big injury news for the Brewers was losing reigning MVP Christian Yelch for the rest of the season with a knee injury and leads the NL in batting average and ranks 2nd in HR.

Padres vs. Brewers prediction 9/17.19

The Padres are reeling, and the last time they won a game Paddack was on the hill. He has pitched great in the previous three games and has not given up any earned runs in his last two starts. The Brewers are hot in their chase for the playoffs, and they are hoping for a good return from Woodruff. However, he struggled in his only start of the season against the Padres and will struggle in a very short outing in this one. San Diego will get him for a few runs and Paddack will have another great start. Add those things up, and you get a San Diego win snapping their five-game losing streak.


Free Pick: 
Take the Padres +125