San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 7/4/19

July 4, 9:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Dodgers -230/Padres +200

The Padres and Dodgers begin a four-game series in Los Angeles on Independence Day. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday's MLB betting odds opened LA at around -230 over San Diego, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then dipped that line down to about -220.

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Padres vs. Dodgers Set-Up

San Diego just got swept three games at home by San Francisco earlier this week, losing Wednesday's series finale 7-5. The Padres led Wednesday 4-3 through five innings but gave up four runs in the sixth and couldn't rally.

Just before that San Diego lost the last game of a three-game series against St. Louis. So the Padres lug a four-game losing streak into Thursday night.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, just swept two games from Arizona, winning Wednesday 5-4 on a walk-off homer by Cody Bellinger in the bottom of the tenth.

Just before that the Dodgers dropped two of three games to Colorado, and just before that they lost two of three to the Diamondbacks. So LA is “only” 5-4 over its last nine games.

At 59-29 overall Los Angeles leads the NL West by 14 games over the second-place Rockies. The Dodgers also lead Atlanta by 7.5 games in the battle for the best record in the National Leauge.

At 42-44 overall San Diego trails Los Angeles by 16 games in the NL West, but it's only 2.5 games behind Washington and the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

LA leads the season series with the Padres four games to one.

Thursday's Starting Arms

Lefty Ryu is 13/16 on quality starts this season and 11 for his last 12. Last Friday he got clipped for seven runs and nine hits, including three homers, through four innings of a 13-9 Dodgers loss at Colorado. But over his 11 starts previous to that he gave up just seven earned runs through 78 2/3 innings.

Los Angeles is 11-5 with Ryu this season, 8-2 over his last 10 starts.

Over three starts last year against San Diego Ryu allowed just three ER and 18 hits through 17 2/3 innings. LA won all three of those games.

Lamet will be making his first appearance in the Majors this season, after missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery. As a rookie back in 2017 Lamet finished 7-8 with a 4.57 ERA, allowing only 88 hits through 114 1/3 innings, striking out 139. But he also walked 54 and gave up 18 homers.

Lamet earned his call-up by posting a 4.80 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in 15 innings down at Triple-A El Paso earlier this summer.

In two career starts against the Dodgers, both back in 2017, Lamet allowed five runs and 10 hits over 11 innings. The Padres lost both those games.

Thursday's Batting Splits

San Diego is batting .244/.323/.458 against left-handed pitching this season.

Los Angeles is batting .269/.349/.482 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top three in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

The Padres bullpen owns a 4.91 ERA this season and a 1.33 WHIP while allowing a .763 OPS.

The Dodgers pen owns a 4.08 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP while allowing a .688 OPS. Those numbers help this unit rank among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball at the moment.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 43-35 in Padres games this season.
  • Overs are 44-39 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Overs are 3-2 in Padres-Dodgers games this season.
  • Overs are 22-18 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.

Padres at Dodgers Prediction 07/04/2019

This game sets up as a double play on the MLB streak betting theory, and while we don't always abide by that method, we like it here. Los Angeles gets our baseball handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up, with the sticks, and in the bullpen. But that price is a bit much. So we'll take a chance and give the run and a half with the Dodgers against the MLB run line.

Free Pick: 
Take the Dodgers -1.5 -120

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