San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Picks & Predictions

Date: 
September 4, 7:00 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
SD +140/LA -152
Total: 
9.5ov -115

After splitting the first two games of this NL West rivalry series, the first-place Dodgers and wild-card hopeful Padres play a rubber match Saturday night at Chavez Ravine. Los Angeles, cruising toward the No. 1 seed in the NL, will go with lefty "opener" Caleb Ferguson here against Mike Clevinger for San Diego.

Which way are we going with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday's baseball betting lines opened LA and Ferguson at around -150 over the Padres and Clevinger, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped the Dodgers a dime to -160.

Padres-Dodgers MLB Betting Preview

San Diego took the opener of this series Friday night 7-1, but Los Angeles took Saturday's game 12-1. The Padres won Friday as +145 underdogs on the dime line, while the Dodgers won Saturday as -220 favorites and covered against the run line at a price of +110.

With Saturday's win, Los Angeles is 4-4 over its last eight games. At 50 games over .500 overall, the Dodgers lead the Mets by seven games in the battle for the best record in the National League, with 30 games to play.

With Saturday's loss, San Diego is still 6-2 over its last eight games. At 74-60 overall, the Padres own the No. 2 spot in the NL wild-card standings, a half-game up on third-place Philadelphia and three games up on fourth-place Milwaukee.

Los Angeles leads the season series with San Diego 9-3.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up

Ferguson is making his first start of this season, probably as an "opener," after 25 appearances in relief. Most recently, Thursday night against the Mets, he gave up two runs and three hits in one inning of work. But on the season, he's allowed just five runs and 12 hits through 24 1/3 innings, with ten walks against 23 strikeouts.

This will be Ferguson's first action against San Diego since 2020, and that's kind of already a long time ago.

Clevinger is 5/16 on quality starts this season, going OK as of late. Monday, he held San Francisco to two runs and five hits through five innings of a 6-5 Padres victory. And over his last four starts, he's allowed eight runs and 16 hits through 20 1/3 innings, with ten walks and 11 whiffs.

San Diego is 11-5 with Clevinger this season, and that's about what they should be, based on his performances.

In his only start this season against the Dodgers, one month ago, Clevinger gave up five runs and seven hits in less than five innings of an 8-3 Padres loss.

Splits With the Sticks

San Diego is batting .246 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .323 team OBP and a .376 team slugging percentage. The Padres have also scored at least five runs over their last eight games.

Los Angeles is slashing .261/.339/.453 against right-handed pitching. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up as the best in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 3.07 ERA this season, along with an ML-best 1.07 WHIP.

The San Diego pen owns a 3.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

San Diego is 39-32 on the road this season and 27-19 against left-handed starters.

Los Angeles is an ML-best 46-17 at home and an ML-best 63-28 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Under is 68-62 in Padres games this season.
  • The Under is 65-55 in Dodgers games.
  • The Total is split 28-28 at Dodger Stadium this season.

Padres at Dodgers Betting Predictions 9/4/22

Ferguson will probably open for a couple of innings, then turns things over to one of the best bullpens in Baseball. Also, Los Angeles gets a big checkmark in the splits with the sticks. Also, the Dodgers hit Clevinger pretty well the last time they faced him. So we like LA for our free baseball pick for Sunday. 

Free Pick: 
Take the Dodgers