San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Odds & Pick

September 11, 9:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

SD +190/LAD -208
8un -120

The Dodgers are shoo-ins for the upcoming National League playoffs; it’s only a matter of going in as the top seed in the NL or a wild-card team. The Padres, meanwhile, are just trying to hang on to a wild-card berth, heading into Saturday night’s rivalry match at Chavez Ravine. Walker Buehler gets the call for the home team here against Chris Paddack for the visitors. How are we playing this game with today's MLB free pick?

Padres-Dodgers MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s baseball betting lines opened LA at around -195 for this game, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped the Dodgers to -200.

Padres-Dodgers MLB Betting Preview

LA took the opener of this series Friday night 3-0, getting a two-run homer from Max Muncy in the third inning and seven shutout innings from starter Julio Urias, who now leads the Majors with 17 wins.

The Dodgers won Friday as -150 favorites and covered against the run line at a price of +135. Also, the game played under a total of 8.5 runs.

With Friday's win, Los Angeles is 4-4 over its last eight games. At 89-53 overall, the Dodgers still trail the first-place Giants by 2.5 games in the NL West, but they also lead the NL wild-card race by 14 games over San Diego and Cincinnati.

With Friday's loss, the Padres are 3-2 over their last five games. At 74-66 overall, San Diego is tied with the Reds for the second NL wild-card spot.

This season series is now tied at seven games apiece.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Buehler, by our strict standards, is 22/28 on quality starts this season. Last Sunday, he got clipped by San Francisco for six runs and seven hits through just three innings of a 6-4 Los Angeles loss. But over his ten starts previous to that, stretching back to the All-Star break, he held opponents to just ten runs through 67 2/3 innings - that's a 1.33 ERA.

On the season, the Dodgers are 19-9 with Buehler, 5-2 over his last seven outings.

Over three starts already this season against San Diego, Buehler allowed five runs - four earned - and 14 hits through 19 2/3 innings, with two walks and 21 strikeouts. LA won two of those three games.

Paddack is only 4/21 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last seven. But he's been alright in two starts since missing a month with a sore oblique. Last Sunday, he allowed three runs and six hits, including two home runs, through six innings of a 4-3 Padres win over Houston, and just before that, he allowed one run through 4 2/3 innings of a 7-5 San Diego victory over Arizona.

The Padres are 14-7 with Paddack this year, but that record is probably at least two games better than it should be, based on his performance.

Over his last two starts against the Dodgers, both last season, Paddack allowed nine runs and four home runs through nine innings. San Diego managed to split those two games.

Splits With the Sticks

San Diego is batting .243 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .324 team OBP and a .411 team slugging percentage.

Los Angeles is slashing .242/.334/.415 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Padres bullpen owns a 3.26 ERA this season, along with a 1.22 WHIP and a 2.80 K/BB ratio.

The Dodgers pen owns a 3.16 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 2.40 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Padres are 30-35 on the road this season.
  • The Dodgers are 47-23 at home.
  • The Padres are 50-49 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The Dodgers are 62-39 against right-handed starters.
  • The Dodgers are 30-22 against the run line when favored by -200 or more this season.

Totals Report

Overs are 71-66 in Padres games this season.

Unders are 74-59 in Dodgers games.

Overs are a combined 26-20 with Buehler and Paddack this season.

Unders are 39-26 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.

Padres vs. Dodgers prediction 9/11/121

Buehler gets our handicapping check-mark in the pitching match-up, but both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparisons come out about even. So while Los Angeles should be fa-vored here, that line is way too high. And San Diego ain't dead yet. We like the baseball betting value here with the Padres and that hefty underdog price.     

Free Pick: 
Take San Diego at +190