Red Sox at Yankees Odds & Pick
The Yankees and Red Sox commence their annual AL East rivalry series Friday night in the Bronx. Both these teams look like they'll be chasing playoff berths this season, but at the moment, both are chasing Tampa Bay in that divisional race. New York sends Michael King and his 2.86 ERA to the mound Friday against Nathan Eovaldi for Boston. Here's our homework on this game with our free MLB pick.
MLB Betting Odds
Friday's baseball betting lines opened New York and King at -110 over Boston and Eovaldi, with an O/U of 10 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Yanks to -115 and dipped that total to 9.5.
Red Sox-Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Boston just lost three of four games in Houston, avoiding the sweep with a 5-1 victory Thursday afternoon. But before that, the Red Sox won four of their previous five series. Stretching back a bit further, Boston is 11-7 over its last 18 games.
New York, meanwhile, just split four games at home with a hot Tampa Bay outfit, losing Thursday's series finale 9-2. Just before that, the Yankees got swept three games at Detroit, and just before that, they lost two of three to Toronto. So New York is 0-2-1 over its last three series and 3-7 over its previous ten games.
At 33-23 overall, the Red Sox sit in second place in the AL East, two games behind the first-place Rays. But Boston is also playing way ahead of pace against its season wins over/under of 80.5.
At 31-26 overall, the Yanks sit in third place in the AL East, 4.5 games behind Tampa Bay. New York is also behind schedule, playing against its wins O/U of 95.5.
This series is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Last year the Yanks took the season series from the Sox nine games to one.
Friday's Pitching Match-Up
King is 0/1 on quality starts this season to go along with seven appearances in relief. Last Sunday, in his first start of this season, he gave up four runs – two earned – on three hits and two walks through just 2 1/3 innings of a 6-2 New York loss to Detroit. And over his last four appearances, he's allowed nine runs – seven earned – on 13 hits and six walks through 9 2/3 innings.
That's quite a dip after his first four appearances of this season, over which he tossed 12 1/3 innings of scoreless ball.
Over two appearances against Boston last season, King allowed three runs on five hits and five walks through 6 2/3 innings of work.
Eovaldi is only 3/11 on quality starts this season, although some of that has to do with a short leash. Four times this season, he's pitched to within three outs or less of a QS, only to get pulled. Last Saturday, he held Miami scoreless on four hits through 5 1/3 innings of a 3-1 Red Sox win. And over his last four starts, he's allowed seven runs and 17 hits through 21 2/3 innings.
Boston is 7-4 with Eovaldi this year, and that's about what they should be.
Eovaldi was tough on the Yankees back in 2018-19, at one point allowing just one ER over a five-start stretch covering 29 innings. But in his only start against New York last year, Eovaldi got bombed for eight runs and three home runs through 5 1/3 frames of an 11-5 Sox loss.
Splits With the Sticks
Boston is batting .251 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .315 team OBP and a .444 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this lineup among the top half-dozen in the Majors in this split. However, the Sox have also been held to three runs or less six times over their last nine games.
New York, playing through a bunch of injuries, is slashing .222/.320/.364 against RH pitching this season. The Yanks have also been held to two runs or less ten times over their last 15 games! And they're still operating without 1B Luke Voit (22 HR last year) and OF Aaron Hicks.
The Boston bullpen owns a 3.72 ERA this season, along with a 1.37 WHIP and a 2.55 K/BB ratio.
The New York bullpen sports a 2.82 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP – which ranks No. 1 in the Majors – and a 2.81 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top four bullpens in Baseball right now.
MLB Betting Trends
- Boston is 17-10 on the road this season.
- New York is 17-13 at home this season.
- Boston is 21-17 against right-handed starters this season.
- New York is 22-16 vs. RH starters this season.
- Boston is 12-5 as an underdog this season.
Unders are 30-25 in Red Sox games this season.
Unders are 35-21 in Yankees games this season.
Unders are 18-11 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
Unders are a combined 7-5 with King and Eovaldi this season.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction 6/4/21
We give Eovaldi the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and while New York owns the edge in the bullpen comparison, Boston owns the edge in the splits with the sticks. Plus, the Red Sox is getting the underdog price. We're betting Boston here for our free MLB pick for Friday.