Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

August 28, 6:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Phillies -141 / Pirates +125

The Pirates won Game 2 of this series 5-4 after losing the series opener. In Game 2 the Pirates scored five runs on 11 hits, and the Phillies scored four runs and also had 11 hits. Phillies’ 1B Rhys Hoskins flubbed an easy catch on what would have been an inning-ending double-play in the 9th inning to give the Pirates a 5-4 lead that would stick.

The Pirates have won four of their last five games while the Phillies have lost two of three and three of their previous five games.

This season the Pirates rank 20th in runs scored and 24th in team ERA and the Phillies rank 15th in runs scored and 17th in team ERA.

Pitching Match-Up

Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (1-2 7.24 ERA)

Philadelphia: Vince Velasquez (5-7 4.93 ERA)

In Keller's last start he had a good one only giving up one earned run on six hits in six innings in a 3-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds. After losing his first three starts of the season, the Pirates have won two of his last three starts. In the two wins in Keller's previous three starts, he only gave up two runs while in the one-loss he gave up six runs. He is a rookie and the top pitching prospect for Pittsburgh and will be making his first career start against the Phillies in this game.

In Velasquez’s last start he had his worst one of the season giving up seven earned runs on five hits in only two 1/3 innings in a 19-11 loss to the Miami Marlins. The Phillies have lost three of his last five starts, but he did not give up more than three earned runs in any of them. This start is Velasquez's first of the season against the Pirates and in two career starts facing them he is 0-1 with an ERA of 7.15. The Phillies have won eight of his last 11 home starts.

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Betting Angles

  • The Phillies had won five straight against the Pirates before losing Game 2.
  • The Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 games against the Pirates.
  • In the last 31 games between these teams, the Under record is 20-7-4.
  • In the last ten games between these teams, the Under record is 6-1-3.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Pittsburgh Pirates: 56-76 SU / O/U 75-53 / Run Line W/L 61-71

Philadelphia Phillies: 68-63 SU / O/U 61-67 / Run Line W/L 62-69

Key Betting Trends

  • PITT is 17-35 in their last 52 games
  • PITT is 10-26 in their previous 36 road games
  • PITT has an Over record of 5-1 in their previous six road games
  • PHIL is 4-10 in their last 14 games against a team with a losing record
  • PHIL is 4-1 in their previous five games following a loss
  • PHIL has an Over record of 4-1 in their last five home games against a right-hand starter

Team Info

While the Pirates have won four of their last five games, they still have the 2nd fewest wins in the NL. While they have had their issues at the plate on the season, they have averaged 7.2 runs in their last five games.

In the first series between these teams played at the beginning of the 2nd half in Pittsburgh, the Phillies won two of three games.

The Phillies have been up and down in the last few weeks, and they sit in 3rd place in the NL East 10.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves. They will have to rely on the Wild Card to make the playoffs, and they are two games back of the Chicago Cubs for the 2nd NL Wild Card.

Bryce Harper leads the Phillies in HR and RBI, and he had gone yards in two straight games before failing to do so in the Game 2 loss to the Pirates.


On the season the Phillies are 39-29 at home while the Pirates are only 27-39 on the road.

Key Player Injuries


The Pirates' staff has been walloped by injuries with two starters out for the season, and SP Chris Archer has recently gone on the DL and is out until mid-September.


OF Jay Bruce (24 HR 57 RBI) was recently put back on the DL with an arm injury after only a day after coming back from missing three weeks with another injury. CF Roman Quinn has been shelved with a groin injury since the middle of this month, and it is not known when he will return.

Pirates at Phillies Prediction 08/28/2019

Keller was lit up in his first two road starts of the season but was solid in his last one. I look for the Phillies’ lineup to get to him in this game where he will not have a long outing. Velasquez is coming off his worst start of the season, and he has not had much success facing the Bucs in his career, but the Phillies have won eight of his last 11 home starts, and that trend will continue. He will have a decent outing and get several runs of support, as the Phillies will take this game and the series.

Free Pick: 
Take the Phillies -141

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