Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds - Free MLB Pick

Date: 
July 11, 7:05 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Mets -161 / Phillies +150
Total: 
7

In the third game of this four-game set yesterday the Phillies beat the Mets 7-3 taking a three-run lead in the second and never looking back. The victory for the Phillies was their second straight after dropping back to back games to the Mets in the opener and to the Pirates in the previous series finale. They’re still one of the hotter clubs in the Majors winners of 10 of their last 13 contests. The same can't be said about the host Mets who have who have just a single win in their last handful of games. This, however, New York does hold a 4-3 games edge after getting the money in the first three meetings of this campaign.

Statistically, the Phillies rank 18th in runs scored and 10th in team ERA and the Mets rank 28th in runs scored and 20th in team ERA in the MLB.

Pitching Match-Up

Philadelphia: Vince Velasquez (5-8 4.69 ERA)
New York: Jacob deGrom (5-4 1.79 ERA)

In Velasquez is just off the 10-day DL after being hit in the arm with a line drive and in his last outing. Before exiting, he gave up one earned run on three hits in two innings. The Phillies had lost his previous two starts where he gave up six earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. This will be Velasquez's first start of the season against the Mets and in six career starts facing them he is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.61. Overall, the Phillies are 2-6 in Velasquez's last eight starts, and they are 2-5 in his previous seven road starts against a team with a losing record.

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deGrom’s was ultra-sharp in his last start allowing only one earned run on four hits in eight innings in a 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Mets had lost his previous two starts although he recorded a QS in both. In deGrom’s lone start against the Phillies this season he lasted only one inning and while he did not give up any runs he needed 45 pitches to get three outs and walked three batters in a 4-2 New York loss. In deGrom's 12 career starts against the Phillies, he is 6-1, and the Mets have won 12 of those starts. However, the Mets have lost four of his last five home starts.

Phillies at Mets MLB Betting Angles

The Mets are 59-28 in their last 87 games against the Phillies.

The Mets are 23-11 in their last 34 home games against the Phillies.

In the last 7 games between these teams, the Under record is 6-1.

In the last 70 games between these teams in New York, the Over record is 46-22-2.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Philadelphia Phillies: 51-39 SU / O/U 39-47 / Run Line W/L 43-47
New York Mets: 36-53 SU / O/U 39-47 / Run Line W/L 37-52

Get more details: Phillies at Mets MLB Matchup

Philadelphia at New York Mets MLB Key Betting Trends

  • PHIL is 8-2 in their last 10 games
  • PHIL is 8-3 in their previous 11 road games
  • PHIL has an Under record of 12-3 in their last 15 games
  • NY is 19-44 in their last 63 games
  • NY is 9-26 in their previous 35 home games
  • NY has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games

Key Player Injuries

PHILLIES

[SS] 06/20/2018 - J.P. Crawford 10-day DL (06/20) ( Hand )
[P] 06/16/2018 - Luis Garcia 10-day DL (06/16) ( Wrist )
[CF] 07/10/2018 - Pedro Florimon 60-day DL (07/10) ( Foot )
[P] 07/10/2018 - Vince Velasquez 10-day DL (07/01); expected to be activated and start Wednesday vs. New York Mets ( Elbow )
[P] 04/27/2018 - Ben Lively 10-day DL (04/27) ( Back )
[P] 05/08/2018 - Adam Morgan 10-day DL (05/08) ( Back )
[P] 03/26/2018 - Jerad Eickhoff 60-day DL (03/26) ( Back )

METS

[P] 03/26/2018 - Rafael Montero 60-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )
[SS] 03/26/2018 - T.J. Rivera 60-day DL (02/18) ( Elbow )
[LF] 05/17/2018 - Yoenis Cespedes 10-day DL (05/14) ( Hip )
[P] 05/29/2018 - Noah Syndergaard 10-day DL (05/26) ( Finger )
[3B] 04/28/2018 - David Wright 60-day DL (03/26) ( Shoulder )
[C] 04/14/2018 - Travis d'Arnaud 60-day DL (04/11) ( Elbow )
[3B] 07/09/2018 - Todd Frazier 10-day DL (07/09) ( Ribs )
[P] 06/24/2018 - Jason Vargas 10-day DL (06/20) ( Calf )
[1B] 06/11/2018 - Adrian Gonzalez has been released ( None )
[CF] 06/10/2018 - Juan Lagares is out for season ( Toe )
[RF] 06/19/2018 - Jay Bruce 10-day DL (06/18) ( Hip )
[P] 06/22/2018 - AJ Ramos 60-day DL (05/27) ( Shoulder )

Search for the best odds: Live MLB Lines

Phillies at Mets Prediction 7/11/18

Even with Jacob deGrom on the mound who for the most part has pitched exceptionally well, the Mets are not a good bet going 7-11 in his 18 starts. So backing the host laying money is unlikely to have a positive effect on your bankroll. The total is a different story. deGrom has shown some cracks in recent games allowing an HR in three consecutive starts lasting just six innings in two of his last three allowing a trio of runs in both games. The Phillies counter with Vince Velasquez who is making his first start after going on the DL. Before the injury, he was pitching well on the road, but none of those games were against the Mets who have a quartet of betters who have faced him with overall success. Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes have combined for 11 hits in 31 at bats with Conforto and Cabrera owning him going 9 for 18. The UNDER has indeed been trending in this matchup this season with a 1-6 mark versus the O/U line, but I think the opportunity to surpass tonight's low total has some value.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 7 (RC)

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