Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick - Odds Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Free Pick - Odds Analysis

Rich Crew
Date: May 2, 7:10 pm
Location: Marlins Park
TV: FSN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Phillies -160 / Marlins +150
Total: 7.5

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In Game 2 of this series yesterday the Marlins beat the Phillies 2-1 in 10 innings and will be looking for their first sweep of the season tonight. The victory by Miami was their fourth straight and sixth in their last seven games. The loss by Philadelphia was their fourth consecutive and fifth of their last six this season. In five matches this season between these two clubs the Marlins hold a 3-2 edge with the home side winning four of the five. The total has gone OVER in three of the five matches.
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<h2>
Statistically Speaking<br />
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This season the Phillies rank tied for 11th in runs scored and 10th in team ERA, and the Marlins rank 29th in runs scored and 24th in team ERA.
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<h2>
Pitching Match-Up<br />
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<b>Philadelphia:</b> Aaron Nola (3-1 2.58 ERA)<br />
<b>Miami:</b> Jose Urina (0-4 4.91 ERA)
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In Nola’s last start he gave up three earned runs on seven hits over seven innings in a 7-3 win over the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have won his last two starts, and his latest was the only one of his six starts where he gave up more than two earned runs (3 ER). In four starts against the Marlins, last season Nola was only 1-3 with an ERA of 7.59 and Miami batted .308 against him. Overall, the Phillies have lost 16 of Nola’s last 21 road starts and they have lost all three of his road starts this season.
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In Urena’s last start he was sharp giving up one earned run on six hits over seven frames but got zero help in a 1-0 loss to the Colorado Rockies. The Marlins have lost all six of his starts this season although he has given them a fighter’s chance to win in all but his opener. Last season Urena faced the Phillies twice and went 1-0 giving up four earned runs in 12 innings of work. Overall, the Marlins have lost Urena’s previous eight starts, and they have lost 22 of his last 30 home starts.
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/935766">Philadelphia at Miami MLB Match-Up</a></span>
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<h2>
Philadelphia at Miami Betting Angles<br />
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This season the Marlins are 3-2 against the Phillies.
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The Marlins lost the first two games against the Phillies this season being outscored 25-1 before winning their last three games against them.
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<h2>
Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records<br />
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<b>Philadelphia Phillies:</b> 16-13 SU / O/U 14-12 / Run Line W/L 12-17<br />
<b>Miami Marlins:</b> 11-18 SU / O/U 14-15 / Run Line W/L 14-15
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<h2>
Philly at Miami Key Betting Trends<br />
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PHIL is 0-4 in their last four games
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PHIL is 1-4 in their previous five games against a right-hand starter
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PHIL has an Over record of 6-2 in their last eight games
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MIA is 4-0 in their last four games
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MIA is 5-0 in their previous five games
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MIA has an Under record of 4-1 in their last five games
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Key Player Injuries<br />
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<b>PHILLIES </b>
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[P] 04/30/2018 - Victor Arano 10-day DL (04/29) ( Rotator Cuff )<br />
[SS] 04/29/2018 - J.P. Crawford 10-day DL (04/29) ( Forearm )<br />
[P] 04/27/2018 - Ben Lively 10-day DL (04/27) ( Back )<br />
[P] 03/30/2018 - Pat Neshek 10-day DL (03/30) ( Shoulder )<br />
[P] 03/26/2018 - Jerad Eickhoff 10-day DL (03/26) ( Back )<br />
[P] 03/29/2018 - Mark Leiter 10-day DL (03/26) ( Forearm )
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<b>MARLINS </b>
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[P] 04/30/2018 - Tyler Cloyd is out indefinitely (04/30) ( Paternity List )<br />
[1B] 05/01/2018 - Justin Bour is "?" Wednesday vs. Philadelphia Phillies ( Back )<br />
[1B] 04/14/2018 - Garrett Cooper 60-day DL (04/02) ( Wrist )<br />
[P] 04/22/2018 - Odrisamer Despaigne 10-day DL (04/20) ( Forearm )<br />
[2B] 04/21/2018 - Mason Davis 7-day DL (04/21) ( Forearm )<br />
[P] 04/20/2018 - Chris O'Grady 10-day DL (04/17) ( Shoulder )<br />
[P] 03/30/2018 - Brett Graves 60-day DL (03/29) ( Oblique )<br />
[SS] 03/26/2018 - JT Riddle 10-day DL (03/26) ( Shoulder )<br />
[P] 03/26/2018 - Elieser Hernandez 10-day DL (03/26) ( Dental )
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><strong><span style="color:#008000;">Search for the best odds:</span></strong> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/odds">Live MLB Lines</a></span>
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Phillies at Marlins Prediction 5/2/18

Sure Marlins starter Jose Urena is 0-4, and the team has lost all six of his starts this season, but he's pitched OK at home with two quality starts this season out of four. He'll face a team that had scored one run in three of their last four games with the only exception being against Dan Straily who was making his seasonal debut when they scored four. Philadelphia starter Aaron Nolan was thrashed in three of his four starts last season against Miami allowing 18 earned runs over 21 1/3 innings. He does have an impressive pitcher vs. batter numbers holding tonight's projected starters to a .222 batting average, but a few hitters skew that; Brain Anderson, Miguel Rojas and Martin Prada have hit him well. The value tonight is on the home team.

Free Pick: Take the Miami Marlins +150
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