Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
The top two teams in the NL East continue a three-game weekend series as the Braves and Phillies battle Saturday night in suburban Atlanta. Which way are we going here for our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Saturday's MLB betting odds opened Atlanta at around -125 over Philly, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped that line down to -110 depending on the betting site.
Phillies vs. Braves Set-Up
Atlanta rallied from behind to take the opener of this series Friday night 9-8. The Braves trailed Philly 5-1 through 4 ½ innings Friday and 8-4 through 7.5 frames but scored twice in the bottom of the eighth and three times in the bottom of the ninth to steal the W.
Atlanta won Friday as a -130 favorite on the MLB betting line, and the game played over a total of 9.5 runs.
With Friday's victory, the Braves now own an eight-game winning streak.
With Friday's loss, Philadelphia is just 1-4 over its last five games.
At 41-29 overall Atlanta leads the NL East by 2.5 games over the 38-31 Phillies.
This series is the second meeting between these divisional rivals this season. Back in March, the Phillies swept three games from the Braves up in Philly.
Saturday's Starting Arms
Lefty Newcomb is making his first start in two months Saturday after doing a stint in the Minors, then serving in the Atlanta bullpen. He began this season by going 1/3 on quality starts, then got demoted. But he's been terrific since returning to the Bigs and working out of the bullpen, allowing just three runs and 17 hits through 19 innings. Most recently Newcomb held Pittsburgh scoreless on one hit through 4 2/3 innings Monday, with six strikeouts, picking up the win in a 13-7 Braves victory.
Atlanta is 3-0 with Newcomb as a starter this season.
This will be Newcomb's first start against Philadelphia since 2017 when over three appearances he gave up five ER through 16 1/3 innings.
Nola, by our strict accounting, is 6/14 on quality starts this season and two for his last three. Last Sunday he gave up three runs and four hits through 6 2/3 innings against Cincinnati, although the Phillies lost that game 4-3. But just before that he got clipped for six runs through 5 1/3 innings against San Diego.
The Phillies are 8-6 with Nola this season, but 0-2 over his last two starts.
Over his last six starts against Atlanta, five last year and one back in March of this season, Nola allowed nine runs and 22 hits through 37 1/3 innings. Somehow Philly only managed a split of those six games.
Saturday's Batting Splits
Philly is batting .260/.334/.443 against left-handed pitching this season.
Atlanta is batting .263/.339/.452 against right-handed pitching this season. This unit has also scored at least six runs each of its last six games.
After blowing Friday night's game, the Phillies bullpen now owns a 4.40 ERA this season and a 1.44 WHIP.
The Braves pen owns a 4.20 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.
- Unders are 36-31 in Phillies games this season.
- Overs are 39-28 in Braves games this season.
- Overs are 21-13 in games played at SunTrust Park this season.
- Overs are 11-3 with Nola this season.
- Get more details: Philadelphia at Atlanta Match-up Stats
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction 6/15/19
Atlanta is hot, Philly, not so much, and momentum plays a big part when we're handicapping baseball games. So we're betting the Braves with our free MLB pick for Saturday.