Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres

Date: 
October 18, 8:00 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Phil +104 / SD -114
Total: 
7un -125

The Dodgers, Braves, and Mets all won 100-plus games this season, but none of them are around to play in the National League Championship Series. Instead, we get a pair of underdogs as the Padres and Phillies meet in this best-of-seven affair to decide a pennant, beginning with Game 1 Tuesday night in San Diego.

Yu Darvish, who already owns two wins this postseason, gets the call for the Padres here against Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia.

Here’s how we home-worked this NLCS opener with our free playoff baseball betting pick.

NLCS Betting Odds

The playoff baseball betting lines opened San Diego at around -120 for this NLCS opener, with an over/under of 6.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped both the Padres to -125 and that total to seven.

San Diego is also chalked at -125 to win this NLCS, with Philly getting +105 as the underdog.

Phillies-Padres NLCS Betting Preview

Philadelphia reached this National League Championship Series by upsetting Atlanta three games to one in a divisional-round series, closing things out with an 8-3 victory last Saturday. The Phillies split the first two games of that series on the Braves’ home field, then won the next two games in Philly by a combined score of 17-3.

Philly also cashed in as a +165 underdog on the divisional-round series betting line.

So Philadelphia is back in the NLCS for the first time since 2010.

The Phillies opened this postseason by sweeping St. Louis in two games in a wild-card series.

Philadelphia closed out its regular season by winning five of its last eight games. So the Phillies are 10-4 their last 14 times out.

San Diego reached this NLCS by upsetting the Dodgers in four games in the other NLDS, closing that one out with a 5-3 victory Saturday. The Padres actually lost the opener of that series, then won the next three games behind the formidable starting pitching threesome of Darvish, Snell, and Musgrove.

The Pads also cashed in as +180 dogs on the series betting line.

So the Padres are back in the NLCS for the first time since 1998.

San Diego opened this postseason by upsetting the Mets in three games in the wild-card round.

The Padres closed out their regular season by winning three of their last five games. So San Diego is 8-4 its last 12 times out.

The Padres finished two games better than Philadelphia in the regular-season standings, but the Phillies took the season series from San Diego four games to three.

Game 1 Pitching Match-Up

Darvish hit 20/30 on quality starts this season and is 1/2 this postseason. Last Wednesday in the NLCS against the Dodgers, he gave up three runs on three solo home runs through five innings of an 8-3 San Diego victory. And five days earlier in the wild-card round, he held the Mets to one run and six hits through seven frames of a 7-1 Padres win.

San Diego played 18-12 with Darvish this season, and it’s 2-0 with him this postseason.

Over two starts this season against Philadelphia, Darvish allowed just three runs and 13 hits through 13 innings, with one walk and 14 strikeouts. The Padres split those two games.

Wheeler hit 16/26 on quality starts this year, and he’s 1/2 this postseason. Last Wednesday in the NLDS against the Braves, he allowed three runs - all in the sixth inning - and four hits through six frames in a 3-1 Phillies loss. Five days before that, in the wild-card round, he held the Cardinals scoreless on two hits through 6 1/3 innings of a 6-3 Philadelphia victory.

The Phillies played 14-12 with Wheeler this season, and they’re 1-1 with him this postseason.

Over his last two starts against San Diego, one last year and one earlier this season, Wheeler threw 14 2/3 innings of scoreless ball, allowing eight hits, with zero walks against 18 whiffs! Philadelphia won both those games.

Splits With the Sticks

Philadelphia batted .248 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .309 team OBP and a .418 team slugging percentage.

San Diego slashed .239/.317/.380 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Padres bullpen posted a 3.83 ERA this season, along with a 1.21 WHIP and a 2.94 K/BB ratio.

The Phillies pen put up a 4.27 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 2.32 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Philly played 40-41 on the road this season, but it’s 3-1 on the road this postseason.

Philly played 59-57 against right-handed starters this season.

San Diego played 44-37 at home this season, and it’s 2-0 at Petco Park this postseason.

San Diego played 58-50 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • The Overs played 80-75 in Phillies games this season.
  • The Unders played 82-75 in Padres games.
  • The Unders played 44-35 at Petco Park this season.
  • The Unders played 5-2 in Phillies-Padres games this season.

Phillies at Padres Betting Predictions Game 1

We give Wheeler a slight edge in the pitching match-up because he’s been so good his last couple of times out against San Diego. We also give Philadelphia a short edge in the splits with the sticks, while the Padres own an edge in the bullpen comparison. So when we add that all up, we come to like the betting value with the Phillies catching the underdog price.