Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Odds & Predictions

September 19, 7:00 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Phil +110/NYM -120

After taking the first two games of this NL East rivalry series, the Phillies shoot for the sweep of the Mets Sunday night. Philadelphia is making up ground quickly in the NL playoff races, closing in on Atlanta in the NL East, while New York is fading away. Kyle Gibson gets the call for the Phillies here against lefty Rich Hill for the Mets. How are we playing this game with today's MLB Pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday's baseball betting lines opened the Mets at around -120 over the Phillies, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to 8.5.

Phillies-Mets MLB Betting Preview

Philadelphia took the opener of this series Friday night 4-3, then won Saturday's game 5-3. The Phillies won as -120 favorites with Zach Wheeler Friday and at -105 with Aaron Nola Saturday. Also, Friday's game played under a total of 7.5 runs, while Saturday's game pushed a total of eight.

With Saturday's win, Philly owns a four-game winning streak, making up nice ground in the NL East race. At 76-72 overall, the Phillies now trail first-place Atlanta by just one game in the East, and they're only 2.5 games behind St. Louis in the battle for the second NL wild-card spot.

With Saturday's loss, the Mets own a five-game losing skid. At 72-77 overall, New York is 5.5 games back in the NL East and seven games back in that wild-card race. In other words, they're just about dead.

Philadelphia leads the season series with the Mets 10 games to eight.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up

Lefty Hill is 7/28 on quality starts this season, only 2/9 since joining the Mets back in July but two for his last three. Monday, he gave up three runs and six hits over five innings of a 7-0 Mets loss to the Cardinals. But in his two starts previous to that, he allowed just one run and eight hits through 12 innings, with 12 strikeouts.

Tampa Bay played 11-8 with Hill earlier this season, while New York is only 3-6 with him.

The last time Hill pitched against Philadelphia, two years ago as a Dodger, he tossed seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball in a 7-0 Los Angeles victory.

Gibson is 17/27 on quality starts this year, 4/9 since joining the Phillies back in July but 0 for his last three. Tuesday, he gave up four runs and seven hits, including two home runs, through five innings of a 6-3 Philadelphia loss to the Cubs. And over his last three starts, he's been touched for 15 runs and 20 hits through 15 total innings.

Texas, a team that's 38 games under .500 on the season, played 10-9 with Gibson earlier this year, while the Phillies are 4-4 with him so far.

In his most recent start against the Mets, six weeks ago, Gibson allowed just one run and four hits through six frames of a 4-2 Philadelphia win.

Splits With the Sticks

Philadelphia is batting .250 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .330 team OBP and a .423 team slugging percentage.

New York is slashing .237/.314/.392 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.74 ERA this season, along with a 1.40 WHIP and a 2.43 K/BB ratio.

The Mets pen owns a 4.00 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 2.60 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are 33-40 on the road this season.
  • The Mets are 43-32 at home.
  • The Phillies are 21-25 against left-handed starters this season.
  • The Mets are 55-47 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

Overs are 73-70 in Phillies games this season.

Unders are 72-63 in Mets games.

Unders are a combined 12-4 with Hill and Gibson this season.

Unders are 10-7 in Phillies-Mets games this season.

Phillies vs. Mets Prediction 9/19/21

We're calling this pitching match-up a push, and while Philly owns an edge with the sticks, New York owns the edge in the bullpen comparison. So in our mind, this game should be lined at right around a pick'em. But momentum means a ton to us when handicapping baseball games, and while the Phillies are playing themselves into playoff contention, the Mets are doing just the opposite. So we like Philadelphia here for our free baseball betting pick for Sunday. 

Free Pick: 
Take the Phillies