Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Odds & Free Pick
After splitting the first two games of this NL East series, the Mets and Phillies play a rubber match Sunday night in Queens. Newcomer Max Scherzer hits the hill for the home team here against Zach Eflin for the visitors.
Who do we like here for our free baseball betting pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Sunday's baseball betting lines opened New York and Scherzer at around -175 over Philadelphia and Eflin, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action then bumped the Mets a nickel to -180.
New York could also be found getting around +125, giving the run and a half on the run line.
Phillies-Mets MLB Betting Preview
New York took the opener of this series Friday night 3-0 on a combined no-hitter, but Philadelphia bounced back to win Saturday's game 4-1. The Mets won as -130 favorites on the dime line Friday, but the Phillies won as +115 underdogs Saturday.
Also, both those games played under their totals.
With Saturday's win, Philly is 5-1 over its last six games.
With Saturday's loss, New York is 1-2 over its last three games.
At 15-7 overall, the Mets lead the NL East by two games over second-place Miami and by four games over the 11-11 Phillies.
New York leads the season series with Philadelphia three games to two.
Sunday's Pitching Match-Up
Scherzer, by our strict standards, is 2/4 on quality starts this season but two for his last two. Monday night, he held St. Louis scoreless on two hits through seven innings, with one walk and ten strikeouts, in a 5-2 New York victory. And six days before that, he held San Francisco to one run through seven innings of a 3-1 Mets win.
On the season, Scherzer has allowed five runs on 11 hits and eight walks through 25 innings, with 33 K's. New York is 4-0 with Scherzer.
Over his last four starts against Philadelphia, three last year while with Washington and the Dodgers, and one three weeks ago for the Mets, Scherzer allowed just three runs and 15 hits through 21 innings, with 30 whiffs. His teams won all four of those games.
Eflin is 1/4 on quality starts this year. Tuesday, he limited Colorado to one run and two hits through six innings of a 10-3 Phillies victory. But over his two starts before that, he got clipped for eight runs and 15 hits through 9 2/3 innings against the Rockies and Miami.
On the season, Eflin has allowed nine runs and 19 hits through 19 2/3 innings. Philly is 2-2 with him this year.
Over two starts last year against the Mets Eflin allowed three runs and 15 hits through 12 innings. The Phillies lost both those games.
Splits With the Sticks
Philadelphia is batting .241 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .314 team OBP and a .384 team slugging percentage.
New York is slashing .261/.347/.396 against right-handed pitching.
The Phillies bullpen owns a 3.83 ERA this season, along with a 1.29 WHIP.
The Mets pen owns a 3.46 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.
- Get more details: Yankees at 5/1/22 Betting Stats
MLB Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 3-6 on the road this season and 7-9 against right-handed starters.
- The Mets are 6-3 at home this season and 13-4 vs. RH starters.
- The overs are 10-9 in Phillies games this season.
- The Under is 10-8 in Mets games this season.
- The Under is 3-1 in Phillies-Mets games this season.
- The Under is 5-3 at Citi Field this season.
Phillies at Mets Prediction 5/1/22
Scherzer owns a pretty clear advantage in the pitching match-up, and we give New York the edge in both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. So we like the Mets here. But we don't like that price. So in noticing that each of New York's wins with Scherzer this season has come by at least two runs, we'll take a chance and play the Mets against the run line.