Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Betting Preview & Predictions

September 17, 7:20 PM EDT

Betting Odds

8un -115

The Braves continue their pursuit of a division title while the Phillies continue their chase for a wild-card berth, heading into the middle game of this three-game NL East series Saturday night in Georgia. Jake Odorizzi and his 4.97 ERA goes for Atlanta here against Aaron Nola and his 0.97 WHIP for Philadelphia.

How are we playing this game with our free PHI/ATL pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday's baseball betting lines opened this game as a pick 'em, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Through trhe early betting, moneyline has held at most sportsbooks, but the total has moved to as high as 8 at some betting shops.

Phillies-Braves MLB Betting Preview

Atlanta won the opener of this series Friday night, 7-2. The Braves actually trailed 2-1 through seven and a half innings, then scored six runs in the bottom of the eighth for the victory.

Atlanta won Friday as a -200 favorite with Max Fried and got the unlikely cover against the run line at a price of +105.

Also, thanks to the Braves' late rally, Friday's game played over a total of 7.5 runs.

Even with Friday's win, Atlanta is only 2-4 over its last six games. But at 89-55 overall, the Braves trail the first-place Mets by just one game in the NL East, and they lead the NL wild-card race by 8.5 games over second-place Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, with Friday's loss, the Phillies are still 7-3 over their last ten games. At 80-64 overall, Philly won't catch New York in the NL East race, but it sits in the No. 2 spot in the NL wild-card standings, a game and a half up on third-place San Diego and three games up on fourth-place Milwaukee.

Atlanta leads the season series with Philadelphia seven games to six.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Odorizzi is 5/19 on quality starts this season, just 1/6 since joining Atlanta six weeks ago. Last Sunday, he gave up four runs on five hits and three walks through just 3 2/3 innings of an 8-7 Atlanta loss to Seattle. But over his two starts previous to that, he held the Cardinals and Pirates to three runs and eight hits through 11 2/3 innings.

Houston, a team that's 45 games over .500 this season, played 7-6 with Odorizzi, but the Braves are only 2-4 with him so far.

This will be Odorizzi's first start against Philadelphia since 2019 when he was with Minnesota.

Nola is 15/28 on quality starts this year, going Jekyll-and-Hyde as of late. Last Sunday, he tossed two scoreless innings against Washington before a lengthy rain delay ended his day. And five days before that, he held Miami to one run through 6 2/3 innings of a 3-2 Phillies win. But just before that, he got bombed for eight runs in four frames against Arizona.

Philadelphia is 13-15 with Nola this season, but that's probably three games worse than it should be, based on his performances.

Over three starts already this season against Atlanta, Nola allowed ten runs and 19 hits through 21 1/3 innings, with two walks against 25 strikeouts. The Phillies won two of those three games.

Splits With the Sticks

Philadelphia is batting .250 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .309 team OBP and a .419 team slugging percentage.

Atlanta is slashing .249/.310/.442 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Braves bullpen owns a 3.15 ERA this season, along with a 1.16 WHIP.

The Phillies pen owns a 4.13 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. This unit also blew Friday night's game.

MLB Betting Trends

Philadelphia is 36-33 on the road this season and 54-47 against right-handed starters.

Atlanta is 48-25 at home and 56-40 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The Over is 72-65 in Phillies games this season.
  • The Over is 73-63 in Braves games.
  • The totals are split 36-36 at Truist Park this season.

Phillies at Braves Monyline Prediction 9/17/22

We give Nola the edge in the pitching match-up, but Atlanta owns the better bullpen and the edge with the sticks because Philadelphia's Hoskins and Castellanos are out/questionable. Plus, the Braves are one of the best home teams in Baseball this season, they're 16 games over .500 against RH starters, and they might have Big Mo on their side after Friday night's late rally. We're betting Atlanta Saturday night.  

Free Pick: 
Take Atlanta at pick'em