Orioles at Yankees Betting Analysis & Pick

May 25, 7:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Balt +120/NYY -130

After splitting the first two games of this AL East rivalry series, the Yankees and Orioles meet for a rubber match Thursday night in the Bronx. Young righty Clarke Schmidt gets the call for the Pinstripes here against veteran Kyle Gibson for the O's.

How are we playing this game with our free Bal/NYY pick for May 25, 2023?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday's baseball betting market opened New York and Schmidt at around -125 over Baltimore and Gibson, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped the Yankees a dime to -135.

Orioles-Yankees Betting Preview

New York came from behind to take the opener of this series Tuesday 6-5 in 10 innings, but Baltimore rallied late to win Wednesday's game 9-6. The Yankees won Tuesday as -160 favorites with Gerrit Cole, while the Orioles won Wednesday as +130 underdogs against Nestor Cortes.

With Wednesday's win, Baltimore is 6-2 over its last eight games. At 32-17 overall, the Orioles own the second-best record in the American League.

Meanwhile, Wednesday's loss snapped a five-game winning streak for New York. At 30-21 overall, the Yanks sit in fourth place in the AL playoff standings.

New York leads the season series with Baltimore three games to two.

Thursday's Pitching Match-Up

This season, Schmidt is just 1/10 on quality starts, pitching on a short leash. Last Friday, he held Cincinnati to two runs on five hits and two walks through five-plus innings of a 6-2 New York victory. But just prior to that, Tampa Bay got him for seven runs in less than five innings of an 8-7 Yankees loss.

New York is 4-6 with Schmidt this season, and that's about what it should be, based on his performances.

In his only career start against Baltimore six weeks ago, Schmidt allowed four runs and five hits through just 3 1/3 innings of a 7-6 Yankees defeat.

Gibson is 5/10 on quality starts this year and two for his last three. Last Friday, he held Toronto to one run and five hits through seven innings of a 6-2 Orioles victory. And over his last three starts, he's allowed seven runs and 17 hits through 17 innings.

Baltimore is 6-4 with Gibson this season, although that might be a game better than it should be.

This start will be Gibson's first against the Yankees since 2019 when he was with Minnesota, and that's already a long time ago.

Splits With the Sticks

Baltimore is batting .250 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .323 team OBP and a .419 team slugging percentage. The Orioles have also scored at least five runs eight times over their last nine games.

New York is slashing .240/.305/.427 against right-handed pitching. The Yankees have also scored at least six runs seven times over their last ten games.

The Bullpens

The New York bullpen owns an ML-best 2.94 ERA this season, along with a 1.23 WHIP and a 2.45 K/BB ratio.

The Baltimore pen owns a 2.98 ERA, which ranks No. 2 in the Bigs, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 2.96 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Baltimore is 17-9 on the road this season and 18-11 against right-handed starters.

New York is 13-10 at home and 24-17 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 26-20 in Orioles games this season.
  • The unders are 26-24 in Yankees games.
  • The unders are 15-13 at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • The overs are 4-1 in Orioles-Yankees games this season.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

We give Gibson the edge in the pitching match-up here, while the splits with the sticks and the bullpens come out about even. So to us, the wrong team is favored for this game. We're betting Baltimore getting the underdog price Thursday night. 

Free Pick: 
Take the Orioles +120