Oakland A's vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick - Odds Analysis

Date: 
September 23, 9:40 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
A's +136/Dodgers -146
Total: 
9un -110

Division champions continue their all-California inter-league series when the A's and Dodgers play Wednesday night at Chavez Ravine. Oakland is the champion of the AL West, Los Angeles champion of the NL West. But while the Dodgers can rest some guys, the A's are still battling for playoff seeding. How might that affect our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday's MLB betting odds opened the Dodgers at around -170 over the A's, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to nine runs.

Los Angeles could also be bet getting around +120, giving the run and a half on the run line.

A's vs. Dodgers Set-Up

LA took the opener of this series Tuesday night 7-2. The Dodgers trailed the A's Tuesday 2-1 into the bottom of the third inning, then scored five runs over the next three frames to pull away. Los Angeles won as a -180 favorite on the MLB betting odds and covered against the run line at a price of +110.

With Tuesday's victory, the Dodgers are 6-1 over their last seven games. At 39-16, LA has now clinched both the NL West title and the top seed in the upcoming National League playoffs. So one wonders what the Dodgers will play for over the last few days of this regular season.

Meanwhile, Tuesday's loss was the second straight for Oakland, following a three-game winning streak. At 33-21, overall, the A's have already clinched the AL West title, but they're still battling for postseason seeding. Oakland trails Tampa Bay by two games in the battle for the top spot in the American League and sits a half-game behind the second-place White Sox.

This series is the first meeting between these teams since 2018 when they split four games.

Wednesday's Starting Arms

Lefty Urias is 4/10 on quality starts this season but one out away from three for his last four. Last Thursday, he held Colorado to two runs and three hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 9-3 Los Angeles victory. And over his last four starts, he's allowed eight runs and 15 hits through 22 innings.

On the season, the Dodgers are 5-5 with Urias, and while they're only 2-4 over his last six starts, that's not all his fault.

This will be Urias' first-ever start against Oakland, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

Fellow southpaw Manaea is just 1/10 on quality starts, although a good part of that is due to a short leash. Eight days ago, he gave up three runs and seven hits through 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 A's loss to the Rockies. But over his last six starts, he's allowed 12 runs – nine earned – and 27 hits through 33 innings.

On the season, the A's are 6-4 with Manaea, 5-1 over his last six starts.

Over two career starts against the Dodgers, both back in 2018, Manaea allowed five runs and 12 hits through 7 2/3 innings. Oakland lost both those games.

Wednesday's Batting Splits

Oakland is batting .219 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .315 team OBP and a .379 team slugging percentage. The A's have also been held to three runs or less five times over their last nine games.

LA is batting .244/.333/.404 vs. LH pitching this season. The Dodgers have also scored at least six runs five times over their last six games.

The Bullpens

The Oakland bullpen owns an ML-best 2.42 ERA this season and a 1.13WHIP, which ranks No. 2.

The Los Angeles pen owns a 2.82 ERA, which ranks No. 2, and an ML-best 1.06 WHIP.

These are probably the two best bullpens in Baseball right now.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The A's are 14-13 on the road this season.
  • The Dodgers are 17-8 at home this season.
  • The A's are 9-2 against left-handed starters this season.
  • The Dodgers are 11-4 vs. LH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 29-24 in A's games this season.
  • Totals are split 24-24 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Overs are 7-1 in games Urias started this season.
  • Unders are 11-9 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.

A;s vs. Dodgers Prediction 9/23/20

We'll give the Dodgers the edges in the pitching match-up and with the sticks, and that would usually necessitate a play on LA. However, circumstances require a re-think; the Dodgers really have nothing to play for at the moment and seem likely to rest some starters for these last few regular-season games. Oakland, on the other hand, is still playing for playoff seeding. And motivation can mean everything. So we like the A's at the underdog price for our free MLB pick in this spot.
 
Free Pick: 
Take the Athletics +136
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