NY Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

September 1, 7:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

: Mets -125 / Phillies +105

The Mets have won the first two games of this series, and they go for the sweep in the City of Brotherly Love tonight facing the Phillies in the ESPN Game of the Week.

In game two of this series, the Mets beat the Phillies 6-3. The Mets scored six runs on 13 hits, and the Phillies scored three runs on nine hits. New York's Todd Frazier was 3 for 4 with two RBI, and Joe Panik was only 1 for 5, but the lone hit was a two-RBI double.

The Mets came into this series on a six-game losing streak but have won the first two games of this series outscoring the Phillies 17-8. The Phillies have not only dropped the first two games of this series but have lost five of their last eight games.

This season the Mets rank 16th in runs scored and 12th in team ERA and the Phillies rank 15th in runs scored and 17th in team ERA.

Pitching Match-Up

New York: Marcus Stroman (7-13 3.29 ERA)

Philadelphia: Zach Efflin (8-11 4.50 ERA)

The Mets had won Stroman’s first four starts since him coming to the club with a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays but lost his last one. In his previous start, he gave up four earned runs on six hits, including giving up two HR, in six innings in a 5-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs. In his previous two starts, he had given up three earned runs in nine 1/3 innings of work. Stroman has given up two HR in two of his last three starts. He has not faced the Phillies in this season and in his career has two starts and one relief appearance against them and is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.86. In five starts for the Mets, this season Stroman is 1-1 with an ERA of 4.59.

Eflin picked up his first win in two months in his last start going six innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits in a 9-3 win over the Miami Marlins. He has bounced between the bullpen and the starting rotation for a couple of months, and the Phillies had lost his last six starts before a win in his previous outing. Philly is 1-1 in Efflin’s two starts against the Mets this season but has not pitched well against them totaling nine innings and giving up nine earned runs. His last win before his previous start was facing the Mets June 24th at home where he gave up six earned runs in five innings, but the lineup saved him in a 13-7 win. The Phillies are 1-11 in Eflin's last 12 starts facing a team with a winning record.

Betting Angles

  • The Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten games against the Mets.
  • The Phillies are 6-2 in their last eight home games against the Mets.
  • In the last six games between these teams, the Over record is 4-1-1.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

New York Mets: 69-66 SU / O/U 65-57 / Run Line W/L 67-68

Philadelphia Phillies: 69-65 SU / O/U 63-68 / Run Line W/L 63-71

Key Betting Trends

  • NY is 4-0 in their last four road games
  • NY is 7-2 in their last nine road games against a team with a winning record
  • NY has an Under record of 7-3 in their previous ten games
  • PHIL is 2-5 in their last seven home games
  • PHIL is 6-2 in their previous eight games against a team with a winning record
  • PHIL has an Over record of 6-1 in their last seven home games against a right-hand starter

Team Info

Both of these teams are out of the NL East race and their only hope to make the playoffs is the Wild Card. The Phillies are only ½ game up on the Mets in the standings, and they are 3.5 games out of the 2nd NL Wild Card with the Mets four games back.

The Mets scored a total of 17 runs in their six-game losing streak before the winning the first two games of this series where they scored 17 runs.

New York’s Wilson Ramas has been on a tear and is in the midst of a 24-game hitting streak. He had four hits in Game 2 of this series, and in August he batted a scorching .434 and had 20 RBI.

Philly’s pitching has been struggling as of late giving up a total of 55 runs in their last eight games.

Phillies' Bryce Harper, who went yard in the last game of this series, has an eight-game hitting streak going and in his previous ten games he has 10 RBI.

Key Player Injuries


OF Brandon Nimmo has been on the 60-day DL and he may be activated for this game. 2B Robinson Cano and 1B Dominic Smith are both on the 10-day DL, and each is out for this game.


OF Jay Bruce is questionable for this game after recently coming off the DL. The team is down two center fielders, as Odubel Herrera is suspended because of a domestic abuse issue and Roman Quinn is on the 10-day DL with a groin issue.

Mets at Phillies Prediction 09/01/2019

The Mets’ lineup has been solid at the dish in this series, and they may need to keep that going if Stroman pitches as he did in his last outing. He has not been that great since coming to the Mets with an ERA of 4.93 in five starts, but he will have a decent outing in this game. In two starts against the Mets, this season Eflin has not had much success against the Mets and look for that to continue in this game. This series finale will be a close one and far from a pitcher's duel, and New York's lineup will be the difference-maker getting it done and leading the team to a win in this game to complete the three-game sweep.

Free Pick: 
Take the Mets -125

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