New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Pick
MLB Betting Odds
Tuesday's MLB betting odds opened the Yanks and Paxton at around -145 over the Mets and Wheeler, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped that spread down to about -140 and the total to 8.5.
The Yankees could also be found getting around +115 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.
Yankees vs. Mets Set-Up
New York (AL) just swept two games from Boston in London over the weekend by scores of 17-13 and 12-8. The Yankees then had Monday off.
Just before that the Yankees swept three games from Toronto; just before that they took three of four from Houston; and just before that they swept three games from Tampa Bay. So the Yanks are 13-1 over their last 14 games.
At 54-28 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by 6.5 games over the Rays, and they're a game and a half up on Minnesota in the battle for the best record in the American League.
Also, of the Yanks' 54 victories this season 43 have come by at least two runs.
New York (NL), meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to Atlanta over the weekend, avoiding the sweep and snapping a seven-game losing streak with an 8-5 victory Sunday night. The Mets then also had Monday off.
At 38-47 overall the Mets trail the first-place Braves by 12 games in the NL East, and they're 6.5 games behind the Phillies and Rockies in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.
This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; three weeks ago they split two games at Yankee Stadium, with each of Tuesday's starters taking the losses.
Tuesday's Starting Arms
Wheeler, by our strict standards, is 10/17 on quality starts this season, and two for his last two. Last Thursday he held Philadelphia to one run and two hits through six innings, although the Mets eventually lost that game 6-3. And just before that he held the Cubs to one run and five hits through seven frames of a 10-2 Mets win.
The Mets are 8-9 with Wheeler this season, but only 1-3 over his last four starts.
In that start against the Yankees three weeks ago, his first against them in five years, Wheeler got knocked around for nine runs – five earned – and 10 hits, including a couple of ding-dongs, through 4 2/3 innings of a 12-5 Mets loss.
Lefty Paxton is just 3/13 on quality starts this year and only one for his last eight. Last Wednesday he got pegged for six runs and eight hits, including three homers, through 4 1/3 innings against Toronto, although the Yanks won that game 8-7. However, in his two starts previous to that he allowed just three runs through 11 innings.
The Yankees are 9-4 with Paxton this season, 3-0 over his last three starts.
In that start three weeks ago against the Mets, his first against them since 2017, Paxton gave up six runs in 2 2/3 innings of a 10-4 Yankees loss.
Tuesday's Batting Splits
The Yanks are batting .276/.351/.487 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup No. 1 in the Majors in this split.
The Mets are batting .280/.350/.476 against left-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup in the top five in the Majors in this split.
The Yankees bullpen owns a 4.11 ERA this season and a 1.31 WHIP while allowing a .716 OPS.
The Mets pen owns a 5.58 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP while allowing an .834 OPS. Numbers like that “help” this unit rank among the bottom five bullpens in Baseball at the moment.
- Overs are 46-33 in Yankees games this season.
- Overs are 44-31 in Mets games this season.
- Overs are 18-15 in games played at Citi Field this season.
- Overs are 2-0 in Yankees-Mets games this season.
- Overs are a combined 19-8 in games started by Wheeler and Paxton this season.
- Get more details: Yankees at Mets MLB Match-up Stats
Yankees at Mets Prediction 07/02/2019
The Yankees are hot, while the Mets are not, so we like the visitors in this spot. We also like taking chances. So in hoping for a little help from the Mets generous bullpen, we'll give the run and a half and play the Yanks against the run line.