New York Yankees at Houston Astros Odds & Pick

July 9, 8:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

NYY +120/Hous -130

The New York Yankees return to the scene of the crime perpetrated against them a couple of years ago when they hit Houston for a three-game weekend series with the Astros beginning Friday night. New York, the pre-season favorite in the American League, is struggling just to stay above .500 at the moment, while Houston owns the best record in the League. Jake Odorizzi hits the hill for the home team here against spot-start lefty Nestor Cortes for the visitors. How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's baseball betting lines opened Houston at around -140 over New York, with an over/under of
9.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped the Astros to -130.

Yankees-Astros MLB Betting Preview

New York just took two of three games in Seattle, missing out on the sweep by losing Thursday's series finale 4-0. But just before that, the Yankees lost two of three at home to the Mets, and just before that, they lost two of three to the Angels. Going back a bit further, New York is 1-3 over its last four series and 4-8 over its previous 12 games.

At 44-42 overall, the Yankees trail first-place Boston by nine games in the AL East, and they're 4.5 games behind Oakland in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

New York is also on a pace to win only 83 games while playing against its season wins over/under of 95.5.

Houston, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from Oakland, missing out on the sweep by losing Thursday's series finale 2-1. Just before that, the Astros swept four games in Cleveland. So Houston is 6-1 over its last seven games.

At 54-34 overall, the Astros lead the AL West by 4.5 games over the second-place A's, and they're tied with Boston for the best record in the American League.

Houston is also on a pace to win 99 games playing against its wins O/U of 87.5.

This series is the second meeting between these two teams this season; back in May, the Yanks took two of three games from the Astros at Yankee Stadium.

Friday's Pitching Match-Up

Odorizzi is only 1/9 on quality starts this season, but some of that has to do with a short leash. Last Saturday, he held Cleveland to two runs – one earned – and four hits through six innings of a 3-2 Houston victory. And over his last four outings, he's allowed just that one earned run and eight hits through 20 innings, with four walks and 17 strikeouts.

On the season, the Astros are only 4-5 with Odorizzi but 3-1 over his last four starts.

This will be Odorizzi's first start against the Yankees since 2019, when over three outings as a Twin, he gave up 11 runs through 15 innings. Minnesota lost two of those three games.

Cortes is making his second start of this season to go along with seven appearances in relief. Last Sunday, he held the Mets to one run and two hits through 3 1/3 innings, with zero walks and four whiffs, in a 4-2 Yanks win. And over his last seven appearances, he's allowed just two runs and ten hits through 17 1/3 innings, with four walks against 26 strikeouts.

In his only career start against Houston, which came in August of last season while with the Mariners, Cortes got bombed for seven earned runs in 1/3 of an inning in an 11-1 Seattle loss.

Splits With the Sticks

New York is batting .228 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .319 team OBP and a .382 team slugging percentage.

Houston is slashing .284/.352/.445 against left-handed pitching this season. Two of those figures rank No. 1 in Baseball, and the other ranks No. 2. So we rank this lineup as the best in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 3.83 ERA this season, along with a 1.18 WHIP and a 3.31 K/BB ratio.

The Astros pen owns a 3.60 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 2.80 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Yankees are 21-20 on the road this season.
  • The Astros are 28-17 at home this season.
  • The Yankees are 29-28 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The Astros are 22-15 against left-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

Unders are 45-39 in Yankees games this season.

Overs are 51-35 in Astros games this season.

Overs are 27-18 in games played at Minute Maid Park this season.

Yankees vs, Astros prediction 7/9/21

We're calling the pitching comparison in this game a wash, but we give Houston a significant edge in the splits with the sticks. Also, New York just puzzles us (and others) while the Astros are hot again. And when Houston gets hot, it rolls for weeks at a time. We're betting the Astros here for our free baseball pick for Friday.   

Free Pick: 
Take Houston -130