New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox AL WC Game Odds & Pick

October 5, 8:08 PM EDT

Betting Odds

NYY -125/Bos +115
8un -117

Forty-three years and three days after Bucky F***in' Dent entered Baseball History, the Yanks and Sox meet for another one-game playoff, this time the American League wild-card game, Tuesday night at Fenway Park.

These teams won at different ends of the season, but both finished 92-70, tied for the lead in the AL wild-card race, eight games behind division champion Tampa Bay in the AL East. The winner of this game then gets the Rays in the divisional round of the AL playoffs.

New York is a short road favorite here, with Gerrit Cole pitching against Nathan Eovaldi for Boston. Who do we like for our free baseball playoffs betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

The baseball playoffs betting lines opened the Yankees and Cole at around -115 over the Red Sox and Eovaldi, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped NY to -120.

AL Wild Card Betting Preview

New York just won its last game of the season Sunday 1-0 over Tampa Bay on a run in the bottom of the ninth. The Yankees had lost the first two games of that series and faced a Monday playoff on the road if they lost Sunday, but they won.

New York only finished the regular season 2-3, but just prior to that, they won seven games in a row. So the Yanks are back in the playoffs for the fifth-straight season.

Boston, meanwhile, just swept three games at Washington over the weekend, rallying Sunday from down 5-1 to win 7-5. But just before that, the Red Sox lost two of three games at last-place Baltimore, and just before that, they got swept three games by these Yankees.

Nonetheless, Boston is back in the playoffs after missing out the last two seasons.

The Red Sox host this wild-card game because they took the season series from the Yankees 10 games to nine. Boston won seven of the first ten meetings with New York this season, while the Yanks won six of the last nine.

Tuesday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is the third between Eovaldi and Cole this season; New York won the first two by scores of 3-1 (in six innings) and 8-3.

Eovaldi, by our strict standards, hit 12/32 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday, he tossed six innings of four-hit, shut-out ball in a 6-0 Boston victory over the Orioles. But over his two starts previous to that, including a bad outing against these Yankees, he gave up ten runs and 14 hits through only 7 2/3 innings.

The Red Sox played 19-13 with Eovaldi this season, and they're 7-1 over his last eight starts.

Over six starts against the Yankees this season, four good, one so-so, and one bad, Eovaldi allowed 14 earned runs and 38 hits through 34 total innings, as Boston played 2-4.

Cole hit 17/30 on quality starts this year but finished 0 for his last five. Last Wednesday, he gave up five runs and nine hits, including two home runs, through six innings of a 6-5 New York loss to Toronto. And over his last five outings, he allowed 18 ER, 33 hits, and six homers through 26 1/3 innings.

The Yankees played 16-14 with Cole this year but are only 2-3 his last five times out.

Over four starts against the Red Sox, this season Cole allowed 12 ER and 24 hits through 22 innings, as New York played 2-2.

Splits With the Sticks

New York batted .230 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .316 team OBP and a .400 team slugging percentage.

Boston batted .260 against right-handed pitching this year, which ranked No. 3 in the Majors, with a .328 team OBP and a .460 team slugging percentage, which ranked No. 2.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen posted a 3.56 ERA this season, along with a 1.21 WHIP and a 2.99 K/BB ratio.

The Sox pen put up a 3.99 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 2.37 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Yankees played 46-35 on the road this season.
  • The Red Sox played 49-32 at home.
  • The Yankees played 60-46 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The Red Sox played 57-39 against RH starters.

Totals Report

Unders played 88-68 in Yankees games this season, in part because of high posted totals.

Unders played 84-72 in Red Sox games because while Sox games averaged ten total runs per their totals were also posted a bit too high.

Overs played 40-37 in games played at Fenway Park this season.

Unders played 13-5 in Yanks-Sox games this season and 8-2 at Fenway.

Yankees at Red Sox Prediction 10/5/21

Cole may be an obvious choice in the pitching match-up, but he isn't going all that great as of late, and New York only split his four starts against Boston this season. Also, while the Yankees get the check-mark in the bullpen comparison, the Red Sox get the check-mark with the sticks. So on our board, this game should be lined as a pick 'em. That's why we like the baseball betting value with Boston here. 

Free Pick: 
Take the Red Sox +110