New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick 6/26/19

June 26, 7:05 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Phillies -145/Mets +135

After taking the first two games of this four-game NL East affair, Philadelphia shoots for the series victory Wednesday night. Phillies bats banged four home runs Monday and four more Tuesday against a Mets pitching staff that's the main reason for the team's 43-29 record on the totals this season. How are we betting this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday's MLB betting odds opened Philly at around -130 over New York, with an over/under of 10.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that spread up to about -145 and the total to 11 depending on which sportsbooks you play at.

Mets vs. Phillies Set-Up

Philadelphia took the opener of this series Monday night 13-7, rapping out 19 hits, eight for extra bases. The Phillies then took Tuesday night's game 7-5, rallying from a 5-2 deficit with a five-run sixth inning.

With Tuesday's loss, New York is just 4-9 over its last 13 games.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has won two in a row, although that comes on the heels of a seven-game losing streak.

At 41-38 overall the Phillies trail division-leading Atlanta by 5.5 games in the NL East, with the 37-43 Mets 10 games back. But Philly is also tied with Colorado for the second National League wild-card spot, with New York only 4.5 games behind.

The Phillies lead the season series with the Mets five games to three.

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Wednesday's Starting Arms

Pivetta is just 2/9 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last two. Last Thursday he got clipped by Washington for six runs and seven hits, including a couple of homers, over 5 1/3 innings of a 7-4 Philadelphia loss. And just before that he gave up four runs and eight hits, including three dingers, over 6 2/3 innings of a 9-8 loss to Atlanta.

Philly is 5-4 with Pivetta this season, and as just mentioned 0-2 over his last two starts.

Over his last two starts against New York, one last year and one earlier this season, Pivetta allowed nine runs and 15 hits through just 8 2/3 innings. The Phillies split those two games.

Lefty Vargas, by our stringent standards, is just 2/12 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last three.

Last Friday he gave up four runs through 4 2/3 innings of a 5-4 Mets victory over the Cubs. And over his last three starts, he's allowed 10 runs – seven earned – on 12 hits and seven walks through 14 2/3 innings.

New York is 7-5 with Vargas this season, 3-1 over his last four starts,

Over his previous two starts against the Phillies, one last year and one earlier this season, Vargas allowed just three runs and nine hits through 10 innings. The Mets split those two games.

Wednesday's Batting Splits

New York is batting .247/.321/.421 against right-handed pitching this season.

Philadelphia is batting .260/.335/.447 against left-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Mets bullpen owns a 5.41 ERA this season and a 1.53 WHIP while allowing an .822 OPS.

The Phillies pen owns a 4.61 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP while allowing a .811 OPS.

Numbers like those “help” both these units rank among in the bottom quarter among all ML bullpens this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 43-29 in Mets games this season.
  • Unders are 40-37 in Phillies games this season.
  • Unders are 23-19 in games played at Citizens Bank Park this season.
  • Overs are 4-3 in Mets-Phillies games this season.

Mets at Phillies Prediction 06/26/2019

Neither one of these teams is playing great ball as of late, so we don't feel either is worthy of a betting recommendation at the moment. But with some hot Philly bats and two lousy bullpens, we expect some runs to be scored. So we're going with the over on this game for our free MLB pick.

Free Pick: 
Take the Over 11

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