New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Odds & Picks
After splitting the first two games of this NL East rivalry series, the Mets and Phillies meet for a rubber match Sunday evening in Philly. Zach Eflin gets the call for Philly against left-hander David Peterson for New York. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?
MLB Betting Odds
Sunday's baseball betting odds opened Philadelphia and Eflin at around -110 over New York and Peterson, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Phillies to -120 and the total to nine.
Mets-Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia took the opener of this series Friday night 2-1, but New York won Saturday's game 5-4 on a Micheal Conforto home run to lead off the top of the ninth inning. The Phillies won Friday as +145 underdogs against Marcus Stroman, but the Mets won Saturday as -110 favorites. Earlier this week, New York got swept two games by Boston. Going back a bit further, the Mets are only 3-7 over their last ten games. Earlier this week, Philadelphia split four games with St. Louis. Going back a bit further, the Phillies have alternated wins and losses for their last ten games. At 13-14 and 11-12, respectively, Philadelphia and New York are tied for first place in the NL East. The Mets lead the season series with the Phillies five games to three. Last season Philadelphia took the season series from New York six games to four.
Sunday's Pitching Match-Up
Eflin is 3/5 on quality starts this season. Tuesday, he gave up five runs and nine hits through 6 2/3 innings of a 5-2 Philly loss to St. Louis. But in his two starts previous to that, he allowed only three runs and 13 hits through 13 frames. The Phillies are 3-2 with Eflin this season. In his most recent action against the Mets, consisting of four starts back in 2019, Eflin allowed 13 runs and 24 hits through 21 innings. Philadelphia split those four games. Lefty Peterson is 2/4 on quality starts this season. Tuesday, he held Boston to two runs on four hits through six innings, although New York lost that game 2-1. And over his last three starts, he's allowed nine runs – six earned – and 11 hits through 15 1/3 innings. The Mets are only 1-3 with Peterson this season, but that's not all his fault. Over three career starts against Philadelphia, one last year and two already this season, Peterson has allowed 12 runs and 13 hits, including four home runs, through 12 innings. New York lost two of those three games.
Splits With the Sticks
New York is batting .230 this season against right-handed pitching, with a .308 team OBP and a .346 team slugging percentage. The Mets have also been held to three runs or less six times over their last ten games. Philadelphia is batting .242/.307/.404 against left-handed pitching this season. The Phillies have also been held to three runs or less five times over their last seven games.
- Get more details: NYM at PHI 5/2/21 Matchup Stats
The New York bullpen owns a 3.45 ERA this season, along with a 1.23 WHIP. The Philadelphia pen owns a 4.39 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.
MLB Betting Trends
Favorites are 190-167 in MLB this season. Favorites are just 136-219 against the run line this season.
- Unders are 12-7 in Mets games this season.
- Overs are 15-12 in Phillies games this season.
- Overs are 5-3 in Mets-Phillies games this season.
- Overs are 8-6 in games played at Citizens Bank Park this season.
- Unders are 209-173 in MLB this season.
We're calling this pitching match-up a wash, and while Philly might own an edge in the splits with the sticks, the Mets own an advantage in the bullpen comparison. Betting baseball often comes down to betting the value on the line, and in this case, we like the value with the underdog Mets. So we'll take New York for our free MLB pick for Sunday.