New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview & Predictions

September 19, 7:40 PM EDT

Betting Odds

NYM +103/Mil -113
6.5ov -112

The Mets continue their chase of a division title while the Brewers are trying to track down a wild-card spot, heading into the opener of this three-game series in Milwaukee Monday night. Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes goes for the Brew Crew here against three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer for New York.

Who do we like for our free NYM/MIL pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday's baseball betting lines opened this game at right around a pick 'em, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action sent the Brew Crew to -113 and the total line to 6.5ov -112

Mets-Brewers MLB Betting Preview

New York just swept four games at home from Pittsburgh over the weekend, winning Sunday's series finale 7-3. Just before that, the Mets got swept three games by the Cubs, but just before that, they took two of three from Miami. Going back a bit further, New York is 3-1 over its last four series and 8-4 over its last 12 games.

At 93-55 overall, the Mets lead the NL East by one game over second-place Atlanta as they close in on clinching a playoff spot.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from the Yankees, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday's series finale 12-8. Just before that, the Brewers split two games with St. Louis, and just before that, they took two of three from Cincinnati. Going back a bit further, Milwaukee is 3-0-1 over its last four series and 7-3 over its last ten games.

At 78-68 overall, the Brewers are not going to catch the first-place Cardinals in the NL Central race, but they're only two games behind Philadelphia in the battle for the third and final NL wild-card spot.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season. Back in June, New York took two of three games from Milwaukee at Citi Field.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

Burnes is 19/29 on quality starts this season and two for his last two, following a rough month of August. Last Tuesday held St. Louis to three runs and seven hits through seven innings, although Milwaukee lost that game 4-1. And just before that, he held the Giants to one run through eight innings, with 14 strikeouts, in a 2-1 Brewers win.

Milwaukee is 18-11 with Burnes this season but only 5-5 his last ten times out.

Over three career starts against the Mets, two last year and one earlier this season, Burnes allowed four runs and 16 hits through 18 2/3 innings, with one walk against 25 whiffs. The Brewers won two of those three games.

Scherzer is 13/20 on quality starts this year. Most recently, 16 days ago, he held the Nationals to one run through five innings, although New York lost that game 7-1. He's since served some downtime dealing with a sore oblique. Last Wednesday, Scherzer warmed up with seven strikeouts through 3 2/3 innings in a rehab start down at Triple-A Syracuse.

The Mets are 12-8 with Scherzer this season but only 1-4 his last five times out.

In Scherzer's last start against Milwaukee, back in May of last season while still with Washington, he allowed two runs through six innings, with ten strikeouts, in a 3-0 Nats loss.

Splits With the Sticks

New York is batting an ML-best .266 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .337 team OBP and a .418 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the top handful in Baseball in this split.

The Brewers are slashing .242/.320/.432 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Milwaukee bullpen owns a 3.94 ERA this season, along with a 1.24 WHIP.

The Mets pen owns a 3.51 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

New York is 43-29 on the road this season and 65-34 against right-handed starters.

Milwaukee is 41-28 at home and 53-45 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 74-66 in Mets games this season.
  • The overs are 70-65 in Brewers games.
  • The overs are 34-31 at American Family Field this season.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Prediction 9/19/22

This pitching match-up is a wash because both guys are just great. But from there, New York owns edges in both the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Also, the Mets are 31 games above .500 against RH starters this season. We're betting New York Monday night.

Free Pick: 
Take the NY Mets +103